动态与热力学因素对未来极端降雨增强的贡献：以比利时为例
Dynamic and thermodynamic contributions to future extreme-rainfall intensification: a case study for Belgium
AI总结：
本研究通过Lamb天气类型分类分析，发现比利时未来极端降雨增强主要由热力学因素驱动，而非动力学变化。
摘要：
极端降水预计会因气候变化及其相关的热力学效应而变得更加频繁和强烈，但未来气候情景下大气环流的局部响应仍不确定，主要是由于动力学差异。在本研究中，我们提出了一种基于Lamb天气类型分类的方法，用于区域评估未来极端降水，并评估未来天气模式的变化。尽管反气旋日最频繁地出现在比利时，但极端降雨主要与气旋、西风和西南风天气模式的天数相关。首先，根据其在极端降雨日期间表示本地大气环流模式的可靠性，从CMIP6中选择了GCMs。研究发现，在比利时的案例研究中，未来（本世纪末SSP3-7.0）降雨强度和极端降雨可能性的变化主要归因于热力学因素，而大气动力学的变化贡献较小。所有季节的降雨强度和概率均增加。尽管极端降雨概率主要在秋季和冬季增加，但相关强度变化则主要由春季和夏季的正向变化主导。此外，历史上与极端降雨相关的天气模式 disproportionately 贡献于这些变化，尤其是热力学变化。更具体地说，稳健的变化源于气旋、西南风和西风环流类型中极端降雨发生概率的增加。
英文摘要：
Extreme precipitation is projected to become more frequent and more intense due to climate change and associated thermodynamical effects, but the local response of atmospheric circulation under future climate scenarios remains uncertain due mainly to dynamical differences. In this study, we outline a methodology for a regional assessment of future extreme precipitation based on the Lamb Weather Type classification and to evaluate future changes in weather patterns. While anticyclonic days occur most frequently over Belgium, extreme rainfall is mostly associated with days of cyclonic, westerly and south-westerly weather patterns. GCMs from CMIP6 are first selected based on their reliability in representing local atmospheric circulation patterns during days with extreme rainfall days. It was found that for our case study over Belgium, the future (end-of-the-century SSP3-7.0) changes in intensity and likelihood of rainfall extremes can be primarily attributed to thermodynamic factors, with minimal contribution from changes in atmospheric dynamics. Both intensity and probability of extreme rainfall increase for all seasons. While extreme-rainfall probabilities mostly increase in fall and winter, the associated intensity changes are dominated by positive changes in spring and summer. Additionally, the weather patterns that are historically associated with extreme rainfall, disproportionally contribute to these changes, especially to thermodynamic changes. More specifically, robust changes arise from an increased extreme-rainfall occurrence probability in case of cyclonic, south-westerly and westerly circulation types.
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