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arXiv 2501.12367cs.LG
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预算约束下的协作式可再生能源预测市场

Budget-constrained Collaborative Renewable Energy Forecasting Market

INESC TEC;University of Porto(波尔图大学);Joint Research Centre (European Commission)(欧盟联合研究中心);European Centre for Algorithmic Transparency(欧洲算法透明度中心)

Carla Goncalves, Ricardo J. Bessa, Tiago Teixeira, Joao Vinagre

AI总结:

针对可再生能源预测中的数据共享障碍,提出结合样条LASSO回归与投标机制的协作预测市场,实现公平补偿与价格约束,显著提升精度并带来收益。

摘要:

来自可再生能源(RES)的准确功率预测对于将更多可再生能源容量整合到电力系统并实现可持续发展目标至关重要。这项工作强调了将分散的时空数据整合到预测模型中的重要性。然而,分散的数据所有权对这类时空模型的成功构成了关键障碍,需要考虑促进数据共享的激励机制。主要贡献包括:a)对预测模型进行比较分析,倡导高效且可解释的样条LASSO回归模型;b)在数据/分析市场中提出一种投标机制,以确保对数据提供者进行公平补偿,并使买卖双方都能表达其数据价格要求。此外,提出了一种用于时间序列预测的激励机制,有效纳入价格约束并防止冗余特征分配。结果表明,预测精度显著提升,数据销售者可能获得货币收益。对于风电数据,与本地生成的预测相比,该提案生成的预测实现了平均均方根误差超过10%的改进。

英文摘要:

Accurate power forecasting from renewable energy sources (RES) is crucial for integrating additional RES capacity into the power system and realizing sustainability goals. This work emphasizes the importance of integrating decentralized spatio-temporal data into forecasting models. However, decentralized data ownership presents a critical obstacle to the success of such spatio-temporal models, and incentive mechanisms to foster data-sharing need to be considered. The main contributions are a) a comparative analysis of the forecasting models, advocating for efficient and interpretable spline LASSO regression models, and b) a bidding mechanism within the data/analytics market to ensure fair compensation for data providers and enable both buyers and sellers to express their data price requirements. Furthermore, an incentive mechanism for time series forecasting is proposed, effectively incorporating price constraints and preventing redundant feature allocation. Results show significant accuracy improvements and potential monetary gains for data sellers. For wind power data, an average root mean squared error improvement of over 10% was achieved by comparing forecasts generated by the proposal with locally generated ones.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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