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arXiv 2501.08653cs.LGcs.AIcs.SI
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细粒度时空事件预测与自适应锚点图

Fine-grained Spatio-temporal Event Prediction with Self-adaptive Anchor Graph

School of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China(电子科技大学计算机科学与工程学院);Shenzhen Institute for Advanced Study, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China(电子科技大学深圳高等研究院);Kashi Institute of Electronics and Information Industry(喀什电子信息产业研究院)

Wang-Tao Zhou, Zhao Kang, Sicong Liu, Lizong Zhang, Ling Tian

AI总结:

本文提出图时空点过程模型,结合自适应锚点图与神经常微分方程,解决细粒度事件预测中的空间异质性与相关性挑战,显著提升预测精度。

摘要:

事件预测任务通常处理分布在大空间区域内的时空数据。该区域内的不同区域表现出不同的特征,同时具有潜在的相关性。这种空间异质性和相关性极大地影响了事件发生的时空分布,而现有最先进的模型尚未解决这一问题。在连续空间中学习事件的空间依赖性因其细粒度和缺乏先验知识而具有挑战性。在这项工作中,我们提出了一种新颖的图时空点过程(GSTPP)模型,用于细粒度事件预测。它采用编码器-解码器架构,利用神经常微分方程(ODEs)联合建模空间局部区域的状态动态。状态演化建立在新颖的自适应锚点图(SAAG)的基础上,该图捕获空间依赖性。通过自适应地在空间中定位锚点节点并联合构建它们之间的相关性边,SAAG增强了模型学习复杂空间事件模式的能力。所提出的GSTPP模型大大提高了细粒度事件预测的准确性。大量实验结果表明,我们的方法在预测准确性上显著优于现有的时空事件预测方法。

英文摘要:

Event prediction tasks often handle spatio-temporal data distributed in a large spatial area. Different regions in the area exhibit different characteristics while having latent correlations. This spatial heterogeneity and correlations greatly affect the spatio-temporal distributions of event occurrences, which has not been addressed by state-of-the-art models. Learning spatial dependencies of events in a continuous space is challenging due to its fine granularity and a lack of prior knowledge. In this work, we propose a novel Graph Spatio-Temporal Point Process (GSTPP) model for fine-grained event prediction. It adopts an encoder-decoder architecture that jointly models the state dynamics of spatially localized regions using neural Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs). The state evolution is built on the foundation of a novel Self-Adaptive Anchor Graph (SAAG) that captures spatial dependencies. By adaptively localizing the anchor nodes in the space and jointly constructing the correlation edges between them, the SAAG enhances the model's ability of learning complex spatial event patterns. The proposed GSTPP model greatly improves the accuracy of fine-grained event prediction. Extensive experimental results show that our method greatly improves the prediction accuracy over existing spatio-temporal event prediction approaches.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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