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arXiv 2501.02520cs.CR
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利用生存与失效时间模型预测物联网设备漏洞修复时间

Predicting IoT Device Vulnerability Fix Times with Survival and Failure Time Models

Carlos A Rivera A, Xinzhang Chen, Arash Shaghaghi, Gustavo Batista, Salil Kanhere

AI总结:

本文提出基于AFT生存分析和XGBoost的框架,融合NVD、VulDB及Twitter数据,预测物联网设备漏洞修复时间,实验证明VulDB和NVD数据尤为有效,可提升补丁管理能力。

摘要:

物联网(IoT)设备在企业环境中的快速集成带来了显著的安全挑战。许多物联网设备在上市时仅具备最低限度的安全措施,平均每台设备往往潜藏着25个漏洞。为了增强网络安全措施并帮助系统管理员更有效地管理物联网补丁,我们提出了一个创新框架,用于预测存在漏洞的物联网设备获得修复或补丁所需的时间。我们基于加速失效时间(AFT)方法开发了一个生存分析模型,并使用XGBoost集成回归模型加以实现,以预测存在漏洞的物联网设备何时会获得修复或补丁。通过构建一个综合性的物联网漏洞数据库,该数据库融合了公开和私有来源的数据,我们提供了关于受影响设备、漏洞检测日期、已发布的CVE、补丁发布日期以及相关Twitter活动趋势的深入见解。我们进行了全面的实验,评估了不同的特征组合,包括基本的设备和漏洞数据、国家漏洞数据库(NVD)中的信息(如CVE、CWE和CVSS评分)、将文本描述转换为句子向量,以及与CVE相关的Twitter趋势频率。我们的实验表明,所提出的模型能够准确预测物联网漏洞的修复时间,其中来自VulDB和NVD的数据被证明尤为有效。纳入Twitter趋势数据带来的额外收益微乎其微。该框架为组织提供了一个实用工具,用于预测漏洞解决方案、改进物联网补丁管理,并增强其应对潜在威胁的网络安全态势。

英文摘要:

The rapid integration of Internet of Things (IoT) devices into enterprise environments presents significant security challenges. Many IoT devices are released to the market with minimal security measures, often harbouring an average of 25 vulnerabilities per device. To enhance cybersecurity measures and aid system administrators in managing IoT patches more effectively, we propose an innovative framework that predicts the time it will take for a vulnerable IoT device to receive a fix or patch. We developed a survival analysis model based on the Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) approach, implemented using the XGBoost ensemble regression model, to predict when vulnerable IoT devices will receive fixes or patches. By constructing a comprehensive IoT vulnerabilities database that combines public and private sources, we provide insights into affected devices, vulnerability detection dates, published CVEs, patch release dates, and associated Twitter activity trends. We conducted thorough experiments evaluating different combinations of features, including fundamental device and vulnerability data, National Vulnerability Database (NVD) information such as CVE, CWE, and CVSS scores, transformed textual descriptions into sentence vectors, and the frequency of Twitter trends related to CVEs. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed model accurately predicts the time to fix for IoT vulnerabilities, with data from VulDB and NVD proving particularly effective. Incorporating Twitter trend data offered minimal additional benefit. This framework provides a practical tool for organisations to anticipate vulnerability resolutions, improve IoT patch management, and strengthen their cybersecurity posture against potential threats.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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