在低收入和中等收入国家应用贝叶斯统计建模进行估计与预测：家庭计划生育估计工具案例

Estimating the timing of stillbirths in countries worldwide using a Bayesian hierarchical penalized splines regression model

Reducing the global burden of stillbirths is important to improving child and maternal health. Of interest is understanding patterns in the timing of stillbirths -- that is, whether they occur in the intra- or antepartum period -- because stillbirths that occur intrapartum are largely preventable. However, data availability on the timing of stillbirths is highly variable across the world, with low- and middle-income countries generally having few reliable observations. In this paper we develop a Bayesian penalized splines regression framework to estimate the proportion of stillbirths that are …

Explaining the Decline of Child Mortality in 44 Developing Countries: A Bayesian Extension of Oaxaca Decomposition Methods

We investigate the decline of infant mortality in 42 low and middle income countries (LMIC) using detailed micro data from 84 Demographic and Health Surveys. We estimate infant mortality risk for each infant in our data and develop a novel extension of Oaxaca decomposition to understand the sources of these changes. We find that the decline in infant mortality is due to a declining propensity for parents with given characteristics to experience the death of an infant rather than due to changes in the distributions of these characteristics over time. Our results suggest that technical progress …

新冠疫情期间高收入国家的超额死亡率估算

Estimating excess mortality in high-income countries during the COVID-19 pandemic

针对新冠疫情死亡人数量化缺乏黄金标准的问题，提出经年龄调整的年度超额死亡率计算方法，应用于30国数据并对比现有估算，强调年龄调整的重要性。

收入、教育及其他贫困相关变量：贝叶斯分层模型之旅

Income, education, and other poverty-related variables: a journey through Bayesian hierarchical models

本研究提出使用贝叶斯分层模型分析泰国多分辨率治理结构中的贫困相关变量，发现其优于完全池化和无池化模型，并揭示教育在地区与家庭收入间起中介作用。

The structural constraints of income inequality in Latin America

Recent work has shown that a country's productive structure constrains its level of economic growth and income inequality. Here, we compare the productive structure of countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) with that of China and other High-Performing Asian Economies (HPAE) to expose the increasing gap in their productive capabilities. Moreover, we use the product space and the Product Gini Index to reveal the structural constraints on income inequality. Our network maps reveal that HPAE have managed to diversify into products typically produced by countries with low levels of inco…

Estimation of income inequality from grouped data

Grouped data in form of income shares have been conventionally used to estimate income inequality due to the lack of availability of individual records. Most prior research on economic inequality relies on lower bounds of inequality measures in order to avoid the need to impose a parametric functional form to describe the income distribution. These estimates neglect income differences within shares, introducing, therefore, a potential source of measurement error. The aim of this paper is to explore a nuanced alternative to estimate income inequality, which leads to a reliable representation of…

Estimating a new panel MSK dataset for comparative analyses of national absorptive capacity systems, economic growth, and development in low and middle income economies

Within the national innovation system literature, empirical analyses are severely lacking for developing economies. Particularly, the low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) eligible for the World Bank's International Development Association (IDA) support, are rarely part of any empirical discourse on growth, development, and innovation. One major issue hindering panel analyses in LMICs, and thus them being subject to any empirical discussion, is the lack of complete data availability. This work offers a new complete panel dataset with no missing values for LMICs eligible for IDA's support. I…

Design- and Model-Based Approaches to Small-Area Estimation in a Low and Middle Income Country Context: Comparisons and Recommendations

The need for rigorous and timely health and demographic summaries has provided the impetus for an explosion in geographic studies, with a common approach being the production of pixel-level maps, particularly in low and middle income countries. In this context, household surveys are a major source of data, usually with a two-stage cluster design with stratification by region and urbanicity. Accurate estimates are of crucial interest for precision public health policy interventions, but many current studies take a cavalier approach to acknowledging the sampling design, while presenting results …

The relationship between economic growth and environment. Testing the EKC hypothesis for Latin American countries

We employ an ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration and Unrestricted Error Correction Models (UECMs) to estimate the relationship between income and CO2 emissions per capita in 21 Latin American Countries (LACs) over 1960-2017. Using time series we estimate six different specifications of the model to take into account the independent effect on CO2 emissions per capita of different factors considered as drivers of different dynamics of CO2 emissions along the development path. This approach allows to address two concerns. First, the estimation of the model controlling for different vari…

分析国家级疫苗接种率及COVID-19疫苗实际接种能力的决定因素

Analyzing Country-Level Vaccination Rates and Determinants of Practical Capacity to Administer COVID-19 Vaccines

该研究利用排队框架、回归与可解释机器学习分析各国COVID-19实际接种能力，揭示基础设施、交通可及性、老龄化及COVAX合作对接种率的影响。

泰国的职业收入不平等：超越基尼系数的探索性数据分析案例研究

Occupational Income Inequality of Thailand: A Case Study of Exploratory Data Analysis beyond Gini Coefficient

本研究使用基尼系数和收入支配网络密度分析泰国超1200万户家庭数据，揭示仅靠基尼系数无法发现的职业收入不平等问题，为多视角分析收入不平等提供了案例。

众包地理收入：使用谷歌地图兴趣点作为巴西圣保罗市亚市政级收入估算的高频代理

Crowd-Sourced Geographies of Income: Using Google Maps Points of Interest as High-Frequency Proxies for Sub-Municipal Income Estimation in Sao Paulo, Brazil

该研究以巴西圣保罗为对象，利用谷歌地图兴趣点（POIs），通过PCA、NMF及梯度提升回归等方法，构建了低成本的亚市政级收入估算模型，其保留数据R²达0.65，可补充传统收入统计。