技术之书中的悬念与意外：理解创新动力学
Suspense and surprise in the book of technology: Understanding innovation dynamics
AI总结：
本研究定义创新中的“悬念”与“意外”概念，通过美国专利分析发现悬念型创新更易被社会接纳，意外型创新虽具颠覆性却推广困难，且该分类可用于识别技术生命周期阶段以预测发展路径。
摘要：
我们通过科幻小说、战略规划或学术研究来构想未来技术。然而，我们的预期并不总能与实际发展相匹配，这就像在一个故事中前行，有些事件符合预期，有些则让我们感到意外。这种差距体现了创新的内在不确定性——技术如何以不可预测的方式出现和演化。本文围绕技术出现与演化过程中创新的这一内在不确定性展开阐述。我们定义：悬念（suspense）捕捉累积的不确定性，描述在实现前就被预期到的事件；而意外（surprise）代表当某一事件意外发生时，认知上的剧烈转变。我们在美国专利中识别出这些关联，并表明：充满悬念的创新往往能更平稳地融入社会，获得更高的引用量和市场价值。相比之下，带来意外的创新虽然通常具有颠覆性和突破性，但因其极端的新颖性，在推广采用方面面临挑战。我们进一步表明，这些分类能让我们识别技术生命周期的不同阶段，为识别技术的系统性发展轨迹并预测其未来路径提供了一种方法。
英文摘要：
We envision future technologies through science fiction, strategic planning, or academic research. Yet, our expectations do not always match with what actually unfolds, much like navigating a story where some events align with expectations while others surprise us. This gap indicates the inherent uncertainty of innovation-how technologies emerge and evolve in unpredictable ways. Here, we elaborate on this inherent uncertainty of innovation in the way technologies emerge and evolve. We define suspense captures accumulated uncertainty and describing events anticipated before their realization, while surprise represents a dramatic shift in understanding when an event occurs unexpectedly. We identify those connections in U.S. patents and show that suspenseful innovations tend to integrate more smoothly into society, achieving higher citations and market value. In contrast, surprising innovations, though often disruptive and groundbreaking, face challenges in adoption due to their extreme novelty. We further show that these categories allow us to identify distinct stages of technology life cycles, suggesting a way to identify the systematic trajectory of technologies and anticipate their future paths.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
