arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv 2412.08079cs.LGcs.NAmath.NAphysics.ao-ph

基于气候模型的区域气候风险评估:利用概率机器学习

Regional climate risk assessment from climate models using probabilistic machine learning

Google Research(谷歌研究院);California Institute of Technology(加州理工学院);General Motors Sunnyvale Tech Center(通用汽车桑尼维尔技术中心);Meta

Zhong Yi Wan, Ignacio Lopez-Gomez, Robert Carver, Tapio Schneider, John Anderson, Fei Sha, Leonardo Zepeda-Núñez

AI总结:

本文提出GenFocal框架,通过概率机器学习生成高精度区域天气数据,解决粗分辨率气候模型与区域决策需求之间的矛盾,提升气候适应与韧性策略。

摘要:

有效的气候风险评估受到粗分辨率全球气候模型与区域决策所需精细尺度信息之间的差距限制。我们引入GenFocal,一种AI框架,能够从粗略的气候预测中生成统计上准确的精细尺度天气,无需在训练期间配对模拟和观测事件。GenFocal能够合成复杂且持续时间长的灾害,如热浪和热带气旋,即使这些灾害在粗略的气候预测中未被良好表示。它还比领先方法更准确地采样高影响、罕见事件。通过将大尺度气候预测转化为可操作的本地化信息,GenFocal提供了一种强大的新范式,以改进气候适应和韧性策略。

英文摘要:

Effective climate risk assessment is hindered by the resolution gap between coarse global climate models and the fine-scale information needed for regional decisions. We introduce GenFocal, an AI framework that generates statistically accurate, fine-scale weather from coarse climate projections, without requiring paired simulated and observed events during training. GenFocal synthesizes complex and long-lived hazards, such as heat waves and tropical cyclones, even when they are not well represented in the coarse climate projections. It also samples high-impact, rare events more accurately than leading methods. By translating large-scale climate projections into actionable, localized information, GenFocal provides a powerful new paradigm to improve climate adaptation and resilience strategies.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

↑