Off-policy evaluation (OPE) is critical for applying contextual bandit algorithms to high-stakes decision-making settings such as healthcare, where new treatment policies must be evaluated prior to deployment. Unfortunately, OPE techniques are inherently limited by the breadth of the available data, which may not be sufficient to evaluate the performance of a new policy. Recent work attempts to improve dataset coverage by adding expert-annotated counterfactual samples. However, such annotations are often imperfect and can lead to worse estimator performance than using no annotations at all. To better leverage imperfect annotations, we propose a family of OPE estimators grounded in the doubly robust (DR) framework, which combines importance sampling (IS) with a reward model (direct method, DM) for better statistical guarantees. We study three ways of incorporating counterfactual annotations. Under mild assumptions, we prove that using annotations within just the DM component yields the most desirable theoretical results. Experiments on multiple healthcare tasks, including real-world electronic health records (EHR) data, show that this strategy is most robust under misspecified reward models and inaccurate annotations. By addressing the challenges posed by imperfect annotations, this work broadens the applicability of OPE methods and facilitates safer deployment of decision-making policies in healthcare.
Clicks on rankings suffer from position-bias: generally items on lower ranks are less likely to be examined - and thus clicked - by users, in spite of their actual preferences between items. The prevalent approach to unbiased click-based learning-to-rank (LTR) is based on counterfactual inverse-propensity-scoring (IPS) estimation. In contrast with general reinforcement learning, counterfactual doubly-robust (DR) estimation has not been applied to click-based LTR in previous literature. In this paper, we introduce a novel DR estimator that is the first DR approach specifically designed for posi…
Cornell University（康奈尔大学）；Cornell TRIPODS Center for Data Science（康奈尔大学TRIPODS数据科学中心）
The ability to perform offline A/B-testing and off-policy learning using logged contextual bandit feedback is highly desirable in a broad range of applications, including recommender systems, search engines, ad placement, and personalized health care. Both offline A/B-testing and off-policy learning require a counterfactual estimator that evaluates how some new policy would have performed, if it had been used instead of the logging policy. In this paper, we identify a family of counterfactual estimators which subsumes most such estimators proposed to date. Our analysis of this family identifie…
Criteo；Facebook；University of Amsterdam（阿姆斯特丹大学）；Cornell University（康奈尔大学）；Tsinghua University（清华大学）
The ability to perform effective off-policy learning would revolutionize the process of building better interactive systems, such as search engines and recommendation systems for e-commerce, computational advertising and news. Recent approaches for off-policy evaluation and learning in these settings appear promising. With this paper, we provide real-world data and a standardized test-bed to systematically investigate these algorithms using data from display advertising. In particular, we consider the problem of filling a banner ad with an aggregate of multiple products the user may want to pu…
Harvard Medical School（哈佛医学院）；Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）；Harvard University（哈佛大学）
We study counterfactual classification as a new tool for decision-making under hypothetical (contrary to fact) scenarios. We propose a doubly-robust nonparametric estimator for a general counterfactual classifier, where we can incorporate flexible constraints by casting the classification problem as a nonlinear mathematical program involving counterfactuals. We go on to analyze the rates of convergence of the estimator and provide a closed-form expression for its asymptotic distribution. Our analysis shows that the proposed estimator is robust against nuisance model misspecification, and can a…
Are Good Generators Good Decision-Makers? Policy Learning for General Interventions via Retargeted Counterfactual Generation
Cornell Tech（康奈尔科技）；Cornell University（康奈尔大学）；Department of Biostatistics, Department of Population Health（生物统计学系、人口健康系）；New York University Grossman School of Medicine（纽约大学格罗斯曼医学院）
DR-VIDAL -- Doubly Robust Variational Information-theoretic Deep Adversarial Learning for Counterfactual Prediction and Treatment Effect Estimation on Real World Data
University of Pittsburgh（匹兹堡大学）；University of Florida（佛罗里达大学）
Algorithms are commonly used to predict outcomes under a particular decision or intervention, such as predicting whether an offender will succeed on parole if placed under minimal supervision. Generally, to learn such counterfactual prediction models from observational data on historical decisions and corresponding outcomes, one must measure all factors that jointly affect the outcomes and the decision taken. Motivated by decision support applications, we study the counterfactual prediction task in the setting where all relevant factors are captured in the historical data, but it is either und…
Algorithmic risk assessments are increasingly used to help humans make decisions in high-stakes settings, such as medicine, criminal justice and education. In each of these cases, the purpose of the risk assessment tool is to inform actions, such as medical treatments or release conditions, often with the aim of reducing the likelihood of an adverse event such as hospital readmission or recidivism. Problematically, most tools are trained and evaluated on historical data in which the outcomes observed depend on the historical decision-making policy. These tools thus reflect risk under the histo…
School of Artificial Intelligence, Jilin University（吉林大学人工智能学院）；Baidu Inc.（百度公司）；International Center of Future Science, Jilin University（吉林大学未来科学国际中心）；Key Laboratory of Symbolic Computation and Knowledge Engineering of Ministry of Education, Jilin University（吉林大学符号计算与知识工程教育部重点实验室）
Post-click conversion, as a strong signal indicating the user preference, is salutary for building recommender systems. However, accurately estimating the post-click conversion rate (CVR) is challenging due to the selection bias, i.e., the observed clicked events usually happen on users' preferred items. Currently, most existing methods utilize counterfactual learning to debias recommender systems. Among them, the doubly robust (DR) estimator has achieved competitive performance by combining the error imputation based (EIB) estimator and the inverse propensity score (IPS) estimator in a doubly…
