通过临时隔离最优地减小疫情爆发规模
Optimal reduction of an epidemic outbreak size via temporary quarantine
AI总结：
本研究利用SIR模型确定单次隔离的最优启动时间以最小化疫情爆发规模，发现其与群体免疫阈值密切相关，并扩展至异质性网络，为疫情控制提供方法论。
摘要：
理解疫情传播的动态对于有效的控制措施至关重要。在COVID-19大流行期间，实施了隔离措施以最小化感染，同时减轻社会和经济影响，这引发了如何最大化隔离效率的问题。先前使用易感-感染-恢复（SIR）及类似模型对周期性隔离的研究，确定了周期性隔离的最优持续时间。然而，单次隔离的最优启动时间问题仍未得到解答。在此，我们使用SIR模型来确定最优隔离启动时间，通过计算隔离开始时使总爆发规模最小化的最优易感比例。我们的分析从充分混合场景扩展到强异质性社会网络。我们表明，最优隔离启动时间与所谓的“群体免疫”阈值密切相关，发生在疫情衰退的起始点。重要的是，提供一种在不同网络结构中识别最优隔离启动时间的方法论，对疫情控制具有重要意义。
英文摘要：
Understanding the dynamics of an epidemic spread is crucial for effective control measures. During the COVID-19 pandemic, quarantines were implemented to minimize infections while mitigating social and economic impacts, raising the question of how to maximize quarantine efficiency. Previous research on periodic quarantines using the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) and similar models identified optimal duration for periodic quarantines. However, the question of the optimal initiation time for a single quarantine remains unanswered. Here, we use the SIR model in order to determine the optimal quarantine initiation time, by computing the optimal susceptible fraction at the onset of the quarantine, which minimizes the total outbreak size. Our analysis extends from a well-mixed scenario to strongly-heterogeneous social networks. We show that the optimal quarantine initiation time is closely related to the so-called "herd immunity" threshold, occurring at the onset of epidemic decline. Importantly, providing a methodology for identifying the optimal quarantine initiation time across different network structures, entails significant implications for epidemic control.
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