释放北海的全部潜力——识别2030年与2040年的关键能源基础设施协同效应
Unleashing the full potential of the North Sea -- Identifying key energy infrastructure synergies for 2030 and 2040
AI总结：
本研究以北海为典型区域，基于2022版TYNDP数据构建能源系统模型，分析比较电网扩容、电力储能、低碳氢相关措施单独及组合的减排与降本潜力，明确不同措施的价值与最优组合方案。
摘要：
政策工作主要聚焦于扩大可变可再生能源（vRES）的规模，以实现碳排放减排目标。高比例可再生能源并入能源系统是政策制定与研究的核心议题，重点在于解决可变可再生能源与需求之间的平衡需求。本研究分析并比较了三项关键的整合措施：电网扩容、电力储能，以及低碳氢气的生产、储存与运输的作用。我们探讨了这些措施单独及组合使用时在减排与降低能源系统成本方面的潜力。我们选取北海作为典型区域，该区域在2030-2040年拥有雄心勃勃的海上风电发展目标。来自《十年电网发展规划》（TYNDP）2022版的装机容量与电网容量预测，以及需求估算数据，是我们构建能源系统模型的基础。在此基础模型上，我们可进一步加入三项整合措施进行扩展分析。研究结果表明，北海区域的电网扩容是一项无遗憾措施，能够降低成本、减少排放并降低所需的可再生能源规模。氢气生产及其在工业中的直接利用在成本降低与减排方面的潜力较低，而氢气储存与运输几乎没有额外价值。短期来看（2030年），电力储能有助于减排，但不具备成本竞争力。长期来看（2040年），储能可通过为系统提供额外灵活性，平衡可变可再生能源资产的投资。将三项整合措施结合使用可带来额外收益。电力储能与电网扩容相结合可实现最高的减排量，而电网扩容与用于工业直接利用的氢气生产相结合可实现最高的经济效益。
英文摘要：
Policy efforts have primarily focused on expanding variable renewable energy sources (vRES) to meet carbon emission reduction targets. The integration of high shares of renewables into the energy system is central to both policy making and research, focusing on the need for balancing options between vRES and demand. In this work we analyze and compare three key integration measures: grid expansions, electricity storage, and the role of production, storage and transport of low-carbon hydrogen. We focus on their potential to reduce emissions and energy system costs, individually and in combination. We take the North Sea as an exemplary region with ambitious 2030-2040 targets for offshore wind developments. The projections on installed generation and grid capacities, along with demand estimates from the Ten Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP) 2022, serve as a starting point for our energy system model. This starting model can then be further expanded with the three integration measures. Our findings show that grid expansions across the North Sea are a no-regret measure lowering costs, emissions and required renewable. The production of hydrogen and its direct use in industry has a lower cost reduction potential and emission reduction potential, while hydrogen storage and transport have little to no additional value. In the short term (2030), electricity storage can help to reduce emissions, but it is not cost competitive. In the longer term (2040), storage can help to balance investments in vRES assets by providing additional flexibility to the system. Combining the three integration measures provides additional benefits. The highest emission reductions can be achieved by combining electricity storage with an expansion of the grid. The highest economic benefits can be achieved with a combination of grid expansions and hydrogen production for direct use in industry.
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