Multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting is vital across various domains but remains challenging due to the need to simultaneously model temporal and inter-variate dependencies. Existing channel-dependent models, where Transformer-based models dominate, process these dependencies separately, limiting their capacity to capture complex interactions such as lead-lag dynamics. To address this issue, we propose TiVaT (Time-variate Transformer), a novel architecture incorporating a single unified module, a Joint-Axis (JA) attention module, that concurrently processes temporal and variate modeling. The JA attention module dynamically selects relevant features to particularly capture asynchronous interactions. In addition, we introduce distance-aware time-variate sampling in the JA attention, a novel mechanism that extracts significant patterns through a learned 2D embedding space while reducing noise. Extensive experiments demonstrate TiVaT's overall performance across diverse datasets, particularly excelling in scenarios with intricate asynchronous dependencies.
ASTGI: Adaptive Spatio-Temporal Graph Interactions for Irregular Multivariate Time Series Forecasting
School of Data Science and Engineering, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China（东华大学数据科学与工程学院，上海，中国）；Engineering Research Center of Blockchain Data Management, Ministry of Education, China（教育部区块链数据管理工程研究中心，中国）
Imperial College London（帝国理工学院）；Hellebore Capital Limited（Hellebore Capital有限公司）；Ecole Polytechnique（巴黎综合理工学院）
We propose Significance-Offset Convolutional Neural Network, a deep convolutional network architecture for regression of multivariate asynchronous time series. The model is inspired by standard autoregressive (AR) models and gating mechanisms used in recurrent neural networks. It involves an AR-like weighting system, where the final predictor is obtained as a weighted sum of adjusted regressors, while the weights are datadependent functions learnt through a convolutional network. The architecture was designed for applications on asynchronous time series and is evaluated on such datasets: a hed…
Asynchronous Time Series is a multivariate time series where all the channels are observed asynchronously-independently, making the time series extremely sparse when aligning them. We often observe this effect in applications with complex observation processes, such as health care, climate science, and astronomy, to name a few. Because of the asynchronous nature, they pose a significant challenge to deep learning architectures, which presume that the time series presented to them are regularly sampled, fully observed, and aligned with respect to time. This paper proposes a novel framework, tha…
Time series models with recurrent neural networks (RNNs) can have high accuracy but are unfortunately difficult to interpret as a result of feature-interactions, temporal-interactions, and non-linear transformations. Interpretability is important in domains like healthcare where constructing models that provide insight into the relationships they have learned are required to validate and trust model predictions. We want accurate time series models where users can understand the contribution of individual input features. We present the Interpretable-RNN (I-RNN) that balances model complexity an…
Napoleon Group（拿破仑集团）；CREST（经济与统计研究中心）；Institut Polytechnique de Paris（巴黎理工学院）
The study of time series has motivated many researchers, particularly on the area of multivariate-analysis. The study of co-movements and dependency between random variables leads us to develop metrics to describe existing connection between assets. The most commonly used are correlation and causality. Despite the growing literature, some connections remained still undetected. The objective of this paper is to propose a new representation learning algorithm capable to integrate synchronous and asynchronous relationships.
Perseus: Interactive Time Series Segmentation with Sparse Supervision via Stateful Memory
Computer Science National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University（计算机科学 国立阳明交通大学）；Control Engineering National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University（控制工程 国立阳明交通大学）；National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University（国立阳明交通大学）
Does Long-Term Series Forecasting Need Complex Attention and Extra Long Inputs?
Shandong University（山东大学）；School of Information Science and Engineering, Shandong University（山东大学信息科学与工程学院）；School of Control Science and Engineering, Shandong University（山东大学控制科学与工程学院）
Time series processing and feature extraction are crucial and time-intensive steps in conventional machine learning pipelines. Existing packages are limited in their applicability, as they cannot cope with irregularly-sampled or asynchronous data and make strong assumptions about the data format. Moreover, these packages do not focus on execution speed and memory efficiency, resulting in considerable overhead. We present $\texttt{tsflex}$, a Python toolkit for time series processing and feature extraction, that focuses on performance and flexibility, enabling broad applicability. This toolkit …
