面向疫情控制的多元检测建模
Modelling multiplex testing for outbreak Control
AI总结：
本文通过建模SARS-CoV-2与流感病毒浓度轨迹并模拟前五例症状病例的检测策略，发现多重LFD与PCR组合检测能实现高检出率、快速发现疫情且检测负担最低。
摘要：
在SARS-CoV-2大流行期间，聚合酶链反应（PCR）和侧流免疫层析装置（LFD）检测被频繁用于检测SARS-CoV-2的存在。其中许多检测为单重检测，仅检测单一病原体的存在。多重检测仅需一次拭子采样即可检测多种病原体的存在，从而能够实现：对更多病原体的监测、抗病毒干预措施的精准靶向、检测负担的降低以及成本的下降。然而，检测灵敏度——尤其是LFD检测的灵敏度——高度依赖于个体的病毒浓度动态变化。因此，为了指导多重检测在疫情发现中的应用，有必要研究疫情发现策略与关键病原体不同病毒浓度轨迹之间的相互作用。本研究对SARS-CoV-2和甲型/乙型流感的病毒浓度轨迹进行了估计。随后模拟了针对疫情中前五例有症状病例的检测策略，并用于评估关键性能指标。采用多重LFD与PCR检测组合的策略能够实现：高检测率、快速发现疫情，并且在多种病原体检测中具有最低的检测负担。由于模型化的病毒浓度动态特征，乙型流感的检出率估计较低。
英文摘要：
During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and lateral flow device (LFD) tests were frequently deployed to detect the presence of SARS-CoV-2. Many of these tests were singleplex, and only tested for the presence of a single pathogen. Multiplex tests can test for the presence of several pathogens using only a single swab, which can allow for: surveillance of more pathogens, targeting of antiviral interventions, a reduced burden of testing, and lower costs. Test sensitivity however, particularly in LFD tests, is highly conditional on the viral concentration dynamics of individuals. To inform the use of multiplex testing in outbreak detection it is therefore necessary to investigate the interactions between outbreak detection strategies and the differing viral concentration trajectories of key pathogens. Viral concentration trajectories are estimated for SARS-CoV-2, and Influenza A/B. Testing strategies for the first five symptomatic cases in an outbreak are then simulated and used to evaluate key performance indicators. Strategies that use a combination of multiplex LFD and PCR tests achieve; high levels of detection, detect outbreaks rapidly, and have the lowest burden of testing across multiple pathogens. Influenza B was estimated to have lower rates of detection due to its modelled viral concentration dynamics.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
