面向能源应用的天气型内部变率量化研究
Quantifying intra-regime weather variability for energy applications
AI总结：
本文指出天气型内部变率不可忽视，提出用连续天气型指数捕捉同一天气型的不同亚型，并针对欧洲多国冬季温度与风速异常提供能源应用指导和参考数据集。
摘要：
天气型以少数几个环流状态来描述中纬度大尺度大气环流，这些环流状态会调制区域地面天气。对主导天气型的次季节预报已被证明具有较高技巧，并对能源应用具有重要价值。以往研究主要关注与某一天气型相关的平均地面天气。然而，我们在本文中表明，天气型内部的地面天气变率不可忽视。这些由同一天气型的不同“亚型”引起的型内变化，可以通过连续的天气型指数加以捕捉，从而实现对天气型的精细化应用。本文讨论了四个选定国家的冬季温度和风速天气型异常，并为天气型预报的业务化使用和解释提供指导。在随附的补充数据集中，我们为所有欧洲国家、季节和关键能源变量提供了类似分析，可作为应用参考。
英文摘要：
Weather regimes describe the large-scale atmospheric circulation in the mid-latitudes in terms of a few circulation states that modulate regional surface weather. Subseasonal forecasts of prevailing weather regimes have proven skillful and valuable to energy applications. Previous studies have mainly focused on the mean surface weather associated with a regime. However, we show in this paper that variability of surface weather within a regime cannot be ignored. These intra-regime variations, caused by different `subflavors' of the same regime, can be captured by continuous regime indices and allow a refined application of weather regimes. Here we discuss wintertime temperature and wind speed regime anomalies for four selected countries, and provide guidance on the operational use and interpretation of regime forecasts. In an accompanying supplementary dataset we provide similar analysis for all European countries, seasons and key energy variables, useful as an applied reference.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
