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arXiv 2408.03410gr-qcastro-ph.HE
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合并双黑洞引力波中进动和高阶多极矩的罕见性

Rarity of precession and higher-order multipoles in gravitational waves from merging binary black holes

Charlie Hoy, Stephen Fairhurst, Ilya Mandel

AI总结:

本研究通过计算LVK观测事件中进动和高阶多极矩的概率,发现仅3个事件存在实质性证据,证实LVK种群模型可准确预测相关事件数量,为引力波信号分析及种群模型验证提供依据。

摘要:

最新的双黑洞种群估计表明,存在一个质量不等且自旋可能较小但各向同性分布的子种群。这意味着在观测到的引力波信号中检测到自旋诱导的轨道进动和高阶多极矩的概率非零。本研究直接计算了LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA合作组(LVK)观测到的每个显著引力波候选事件中进动和高阶多极矩的概率。结果发现,只有一个事件(GW200129_065458)显示出进动的实质性证据,两个事件(GW190412和GW190814)显示出高阶多极矩的实质性证据;其他引力波信号中进动和高阶多极矩的任何证据均与噪声引起的随机波动一致。随后,我们将观测结果与种群模型的预期进行比较,证实LVK当前的种群估计准确预测了具有进动和高阶多极矩显著证据的观测事件数量。具体而言,该种群模型预测,每约50次探测中会出现一个具有进动显著证据的双星,每约70次观测中会出现一个具有高阶多极矩显著证据的双星。然而,我们强调,由于仅在三个事件中观测到进动和高阶多极矩的实质性证据,任何包含产生约2%可检测进动和高阶多极矩事件的双星子种群的模型都可能与数据一致。

英文摘要:

The latest binary black hole population estimates argue for a subpopulation of unequal component mass binaries with spins that are likely small but isotropically distributed. This implies a non-zero probability of detecting spin-induced orbital precession and higher order multipole moments in the observed gravitational-wave signals. In this work we directly calculate the probability for precession and higher-order multipoles in each significant gravitational-wave candidate observed by the LIGO--Virgo--KAGRA collaborations (LVK). We find that only one event shows substantial evidence for precession: GW200129_065458, and two events show substantial evidence for higher-order multipoles: GW190412 and GW190814; any evidence for precession and higher-order multipole moments in other gravitational-wave signals is consistent with random fluctuations caused by noise. We then compare our observations with expectations from population models, and confirm that current population estimates from the LVK accurately predict the number of observed events with significant evidence for precession and higher-order multipoles. In particular, we find that this population model predicts that a binary with significant evidence for precession will occur once in every $\sim 50$ detections, and a binary with significant evidence for higher-order multipoles will occur once in every $\sim 70$ observations. However, we emphasise that since substantial evidence for precession and higher-order multipoles have only been observed in three events, any population model that includes a subpopulation of binaries yielding $\sim 2\%$ of events with detectable precession and higher-order multipole moments will likely be consistent with the data.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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