从行业层面数据推断企业级供应链网络及其现实系统性风险

Inferring supply networks from mobile phone data to estimate the resilience of a national economy

National economies rest on networks of millions of customer-supplier relations. Some companies -- in the case of their default -- can trigger significant cascades of shock in the supply-chain network and are thus systemically risky. Up to now, systemic risk of individual companies was practically not quantifiable, due to the unavailability of firm-level transaction data. So far, economic shocks are typically studied in the framework of input-output analysis on the industry-level that can't relate risk to individual firms. Exact firm-level supply networks based on tax or payment data exist only…

Systemic risk in multiplex networks with asymmetric coupling and threshold feedback

We study cascades on a two-layer multiplex network, with asymmetric feedback that depends on the coupling strength between the layers. Based on an analytical branching process approximation, we calculate the systemic risk measured by the final fraction of failed nodes on a reference layer. The results are compared with the case of a single layer network that is an aggregated representation of the two layers. We find that systemic risk in the two-layer network is smaller than in the aggregated one only if the coupling strength between the two layers is small. Above a critical coupling strength,…

DebtStreamness：企业间网络中信贷流的生态学研究方法

DebtStreamness: An Ecological Approach to Credit Flows in Inter-Firm Networks

本研究受生态食物网营养级启发提出DebtStreamness指标，用于量化企业在信贷链中的位置，经乌拉圭企业信贷网络验证，该指标能捕捉生产数据未体现的金融结构，为系统性信贷风险研究提供新视角。

A multilevel analysis to systemic exposure: insights from local and system-wide information

In the aftermath of the financial crisis, the growing literature on financial networks has widely documented the predictive power of topological characteristics (e.g. degree centrality measures) to explain the systemic impact or systemic vulnerability of financial institutions. In this work, we show that considering alternative topological measures based on local sub-network environment improves our ability to identify systemic institutions. To provide empirical evidence, we apply a two-step procedure. First, we recover network communities (i.e. close-peer environment) on a spillover network o…

从部分信息重构企业层面的投入产出网络

Reconstructing firm-level input-output networks from partial information

针对企业层面供应链数据稀缺且不完整的问题，提出基于最大熵方法，利用贸易关系存在性及企业财务汇总信息重构交易价值，在厄瓜多尔数据集和FactSet上验证了其重构微观量分布的有效性及对系统重要性度量的局限性。

在快速脱碳情景下利用企业级供应链最小化失业与经济损失

Firm-level supply chains to minimize unemployment and economic losses in rapid decarbonization scenarios

研究分析匈牙利企业级生产网络，通过对比企业系统相关性与CO2排放量，设计了在快速脱碳情景下能将失业与经济损失降至最低的最优策略。

企业层面的供应链网络重构动态

Supply chain network rewiring dynamics at the firm-level

本研究利用匈牙利增值税数据重建企业级供应链网络，发现每年约25%企业退出、55%链接更替，并构建统计模型再现网络特征以评估经济韧性与冲击传播。

Avoiding bias when inferring race using name-based approaches

Racial disparity in academia is a widely acknowledged problem. The quantitative understanding of racial based systemic inequalities is an important step towards a more equitable research system. However, because of the lack of robust information on authors' race, few large scale analyses have been performed on this topic. Algorithmic approaches offer one solution, using known information about authors, such as their names, to infer their perceived race. As with any other algorithm, the process of racial inference can generate biases if it is not carefully considered. The goal of this article i…

Evaluating the role of risk networks on risk identification, classification and emergence

Modern society heavily relies on strongly connected, socio-technical systems. As a result, distinct risks threatening the operation of individual systems can no longer be treated in isolation. Consequently, risk experts are actively seeking for ways to relax the risk independence assumption that undermines typical risk management models. Prominent work has advocated the use of risk networks as a way forward. Yet, the inevitable biases introduced during the generation of these survey-based risk networks limit our ability to examine their topology, and in turn challenge the utility of the very n…

拓扑作为信息：企业贷款中的网络效应

Topology as information: Network effects in corporate lending

本文研究了信息噪声下信用网络形成机制，提出拓扑资本概念，发现网络拓扑优于传统指标，揭示了网络效应在贷款规模和风险信号中的作用，指出平衡表单在企业贷款中的作用减弱。

Fragmentation, integration and macroprudential surveillance of the US financial industry: Insights from network science

Drawing on recent contributions inferring financial interconnectedness from market data, our paper provides new insights on the evolution of the US financial industry over a long period of time by using several tools coming from network science. Following [1] a Time-Varying Parameter Vector AutoRegressive (TVP-VAR) approach on stock market returns to retrieve unobserved directed links among financial institutions, we reconstruct a fully dynamic network in the sense that connections are let to evolve through time. The financial system analysed consists of a large set of $155$ financial institut…