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arXiv 2407.19932q-fin.RMecon.EM
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非对称最优对冲比率的检验:以比特币为例

Testing for the Asymmetric Optimal Hedge Ratios: With an Application to Bitcoin

Abdulnasser Hatemi-J

AI总结:

本文提出多元框架下检验对称与非对称最优对冲比率的方法,并以比特币为例证明最优对冲比率依赖于投资者头寸方向,做多与做空的条件最优对冲比率差异显著。

摘要:

降低金融风险对投资者、金融机构和企业至关重要。自 Johnson(1960)的开创性贡献以来,基于期货的最优对冲比率被广泛使用。本文提出了一种显式且高效的方法,用于在多元框架下检验对称最优对冲比率的原假设与非对称备择假设。如果原假设被拒绝,则可以通过所提出的模型估计依赖于头寸的最优对冲比率。与标准方法相比,该方法有望提高所实施对冲策略的准确性,因为它考虑了风险来源取决于投资者是风险资产的买方还是卖方这一事实。本文使用比特币的现货和期货价格进行了应用研究。结果有力地支持了该加密货币的最优对冲比率依赖于头寸的观点。做多比特币的投资者其条件最优对冲比率远高于做空该资产的投资者。两个条件最优对冲比率之间的差异在统计上显著,这对实施风险管理策略具有重要影响。

英文摘要:

Reducing financial risk is of paramount importance to investors, financial institutions, and corporations. Since the pioneering contribution of Johnson (1960), the optimal hedge ratio based on futures is regularly utilized. The current paper suggests an explicit and efficient method for testing the null hypothesis of a symmetric optimal hedge ratio against an asymmetric alternative one within a multivariate setting. If the null is rejected, the position dependent optimal hedge ratios can be estimated via the suggested model. This approach is expected to enhance the accuracy of the implemented hedging strategies compared to the standard methods since it accounts for the fact that the source of risk depends on whether the investor is a buyer or a seller of the risky asset. An application is provided using spot and futures prices of Bitcoin. The results strongly support the view that the optimal hedge ratio for this cryptocurrency is position dependent. The investor that is long in Bitcoin has a much higher conditional optimal hedge ratio compared to the one that is short in the asset. The difference between the two conditional optimal hedge ratios is statistically significant, which has important repercussions for implementing risk management strategies.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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