We propose a functional stochastic block model whose vertices involve functional data information. This new model extends the classic stochastic block model with vector-valued nodal information, and finds applications in real-world networks whose nodal information could be functional curves. Examples include international trade data in which a network vertex (country) is associated with the annual or quarterly GDP over certain time period, and MyFitnessPal data in which a network vertex (MyFitnessPal user) is associated with daily calorie information measured over certain time period. Two statistical tasks will be jointly executed. First, we will detect community structures of the network vertices assisted by the functional nodal information. Second, we propose computationally efficient variational test to examine the significance of the functional nodal information. We show that the community detection algorithms achieve weak and strong consistency, and the variational test is asymptotically chi-square with diverging degrees of freedom. As a byproduct, we propose pointwise confidence intervals for the slop function of the functional nodal information. Our methods are examined through both simulated and real datasets.
Variable selection and classification are common objectives in the analysis of high-dimensional data. Most such methods make distributional assumptions that may not be compatible with the diverse families of distributions data can take. A novel Bayesian nonparametric discriminant analysis model that performs both variable selection and classification within a seamless framework is proposed. P{ó}lya tree priors are assigned to the unknown group-conditional distributions to account for their uncertainty, and allow prior beliefs about the distributions to be incorporated simply as hyperparameters…
The paper develops new methods of non-parametric estimation a compound Poisson distribution. Such a problem arise, in particular, in the inference of a Levy process recorded at equidistant time intervals. Our key estimator is based on series decomposition of functionals of a measure and relies on the steepest descent technique recently developed in variational analysis of measures. Simulation studies demonstrate applicability domain of our methods and how they positively compare and complement the existing techniques. They are particularly suited for discrete compounding distributions, not nec…
We propose a novel approach for density estimation called histogram trend filtering. Our estimator arises from looking at surrogate Poisson model for counts of observations in a partition of the support of the data. We begin by showing consistency for a variational estimator for this density estimation problem. We then study a discrete estimator that can be efficiently found via convex optimization. We show that the estimator enjoys strong statistical guarantees, yet is much more practical and computationally efficient than other estimators that enjoy similar guarantees. Finally, in our simula…
For the problem of nonparametric regression of smooth functions, we reconsider and analyze a constrained variational approach, which we call the MultIscale Nemirovski-Dantzig (MIND) estimator. This can be viewed as a multiscale extension of the Dantzig selector (\emph{Ann. Statist.}, 35(6): 2313--51, 2009) based on early ideas of Nemirovski (\emph{J. Comput. System Sci.}, 23:1--11, 1986). MIND minimizes a homogeneous Sobolev norm under the constraint that the multiresolution norm of the residual is bounded by a universal threshold. The main contribution of this paper is the derivation of conve…
This paper is concerned with nonparametric estimation of the weighted stochastic block model. We first show that the model implies a set of multilinear restrictions on the joint distribution of edge weights of certain subgraphs involving (in its simplest form) triplets and quadruples of nodes. From this system of equations the unknown components of the model can be recovered nonparametrically, up to the usual labeling ambiguity. We introduce a simple and computationally-attractive manner to do this. Estimators then follow from the analogy principle. Limit theory is provided. We find that compo…
A theory of superefficiency and adaptation is developed under flexible performance measures which give a multiresolution view of risk and bridge the gap between pointwise and global estimation. This theory provides a useful benchmark for the evaluation of spatially adaptive estimators and shows that the possible degree of superefficiency for minimax rate optimal estimators critically depends on the size of the neighborhood over which the risk is measured. Wavelet procedures are given which adapt rate optimally for given shrinking neighborhoods including the extreme cases of mean squared error …
This paper studies multivariate nonparametric change point localization and inference problems. The data consists of a multivariate time series with potentially short range dependence. The distribution of this data is assumed to be piecewise constant with densities in a Hölder class. The change points, or times at which the distribution changes, are unknown. We derive the limiting distributions of the change point estimators when the minimal jump size vanishes or remains constant, a first in the literature on change point settings. We are introducing two new features: a consistent estimator th…
We present a unifying view on various statistical estimation techniques including penalization, variational and thresholding methods. These estimators will be analyzed in the context of statistical linear inverse problems including nonparametric and change point regression, and high dimensional linear models as examples. Our approach reveals many seemingly unrelated estimation schemes as special instances of a general class of variational multiscale estimators, named MIND (MultIscale Nemirovskii--Dantzig). These estimators result from minimizing certain regularization functionals under convex …
Variational methods for parameter estimation are an active research area, potentially offering computationally tractable heuristics with theoretical performance bounds. We build on recent work that applies such methods to network data, and establish asymptotic normality rates for parameter estimates of stochastic blockmodel data, by either maximum likelihood or variational estimation. The result also applies to various sub-models of the stochastic blockmodel found in the literature.
Variational methods are extremely popular in the analysis of network data. Statistical guarantees obtained for these methods typically provide asymptotic normality for the problem of estimation of global model parameters under the stochastic block model. In the present work, we consider the case of networks with missing links that is important in application and show that the variational approximation to the maximum likelihood estimator converges at the minimax rate. This provides the first minimax optimal and tractable estimator for the problem of parameter estimation for the stochastic block…
For nonparametric regression with one-sided errors and a boundary curve model for Poisson point processes we consider the problem of efficient estimation for linear functionals. The minimax optimal rate is obtained by an unbiased estimation method which nevertheless depends on a Hölder condition or monotonicity assumption for the underlying regression or boundary function. We first construct a simple blockwise estimator and then build up a nonparametric maximum-likelihood approach for exponential noise variables and the point process model. In that approach also non-asymptotic efficiency is ob…
This paper outlines a new nonparametric estimation procedure for unobserved phi-mixing processes. It is assumed that the only information on the stationary hidden states (Xk) is given by the process (Yk), where Yk is a noisy observation of f(Xk). The paper introduces a maximum pseudo-likelihood procedure to estimate the function f and the distribution of the hidden states using blocks of observations of length b. The identifiability of the model is studied in the particular cases b=1 and b=2. The consistency of the estimators of f and of the distribution of the hidden states as the number of o…
Estimation of the service time distribution in the discrete-time $GI/G/\infty$-queue based solely on information on the arrival and departure processes is considered. The focus is put on the estimation approach via the so called "sequence of differences". Existing results for this approach are substantially extended by proving a functional central limit theorem for the resultant estimator. Here, the underlying function space is taken to be the space of sequences converging to zero. The moving block bootstrap technique is considered for the estimation of the resultant covariance kernel and is s…
In this paper, we propose a theoretical analysis of the algorithm ISDE, introduced in previous work. From a dataset, ISDE learns a density written as a product of marginal density estimators over a partition of the features. We show that under some hypotheses, the Kullback-Leibler loss between the proper density and the output of ISDE is a bias term plus the sum of two terms which goes to zero as the number of samples goes to infinity. The rate of convergence indicates that ISDE tackles the curse of dimensionality by reducing the dimension from the one of the ambient space to the one of the bi…
We study graphons as a non-parametric generalization of stochastic block models, and show how to obtain compactly represented estimators for sparse networks in this framework. Our algorithms and analysis go beyond previous work in several ways. First, we relax the usual boundedness assumption for the generating graphon and instead treat arbitrary integrable graphons, so that we can handle networks with long tails in their degree distributions. Second, again motivated by real-world applications, we relax the usual assumption that the graphon is defined on the unit interval, to allow latent posi…
Considering multivariate strongly mixing time series, nonparametric tests for a constant copula with specified or unspecified change point (candidate) are derived; the tests are consistent against general alternatives. A tapered block multiplier technique based on serially dependent multiplier random variables is provided to estimate p-values of the test statistics. Size and power of the tests in finite samples are evaluated with Monte Carlo simulations. The block multiplier technique might have several other applications for statistical inference on copulas of serially dependent data.
Density Estimation is one of the central areas of statistics whose purpose is to estimate the probability density function underlying the observed data. It serves as a building block for many tasks in statistical inference, visualization, and machine learning. Density Estimation is widely adopted in the domain of unsupervised learning especially for the application of clustering. As big data become pervasive in almost every area of data sciences, analyzing high-dimensional data that have many features and variables appears to be a major focus in both academia and industry. High-dimensional dat…
We formulate the notion of minimax estimation under storage or communication constraints, and prove an extension to Pinsker's theorem for nonparametric estimation over Sobolev ellipsoids. Placing limits on the number of bits used to encode any estimator, we give tight lower and upper bounds on the excess risk due to quantization in terms of the number of bits, the signal size, and the noise level. This establishes the Pareto optimal tradeoff between storage and risk under quantization constraints for Sobolev spaces. Our results and proof techniques combine elements of rate distortion theory an…
In this paper we develop a nonparametric regression method that is simultaneously adaptive over a wide range of function classes for the regression function and robust over a large collection of error distributions, including those that are heavy-tailed, and may not even possess variances or means. Our approach is to first use local medians to turn the problem of nonparametric regression with unknown noise distribution into a standard Gaussian regression problem and then apply a wavelet block thresholding procedure to construct an estimator of the regression function. It is shown that the esti…
We present a Bayesian nonparametric system reliability model which scales well and provides a great deal of flexibility in modeling. The Bayesian approach naturally handles the disparate amounts of component and subsystem data that may exist. However, traditional Bayesian reliability models are quite computationally complex, relying on MCMC techniques. Our approach utilizes the conjugate properties of the beta-Stacy process, which is the fundamental building block of our model. These individual models are linked together using a method of moments estimation approach. This model is computationa…
This paper deals with non-observed dyads during the sampling of a network and consecutive issues in the inference of the Stochastic Block Model (SBM). We review sampling designs and recover Missing At Random (MAR) and Not Missing At Random (NMAR) conditions for the SBM. We introduce variants of the variational EM algorithm for inferring the SBM under various sampling designs (MAR and NMAR) all available as an R package. Model selection criteria based on Integrated Classification Likelihood are derived for selecting both the number of blocks and the sampling design. We investigate the accuracy …
Exponential family models, generalized linear models (GLMs), generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) and generalized additive models (GAMs) are widely used methods in statistics. However, many scientific applications necessitate constraints be placed on model parameters such as shape and linear inequality constraints. Constrained estimation and inference of parameters remains a pervasive problem in statistics where many methods rely on modifying rigid large sample theory assumptions for inference. We propose a flexible slice sampler Gibbs algorithm for Bayesian GLMMs and GAMs with linear inequ…
We construct a novel class of stochastic blockmodels using Bayesian nonparametric mixtures. These model allows us to jointly estimate the structure of multiple networks and explicitly compare the community structures underlying them, while allowing us to capture realistic properties of the underlying networks. Inference is carried out using MCMC algorithms that incorporates sequentially allocated split-merge steps to improve mixing. The models are illustrated using a simulation study and a variety of real-life examples.
W-graph refers to a general class of random graph models that can be seen as a random graph limit. It is characterized by both its graphon function and its motif frequencies. In this paper, relying on an existing variational Bayes algorithm for the stochastic block models along with the corresponding weights for model averaging, we derive an estimate of the graphon function as an average of stochastic block models with increasing number of blocks. In the same framework, we derive the variational posterior frequency of any motif. A simulation study and an illustration on a social network comple…
We propose a novel Riemannian geometric framework for variational inference in Bayesian models based on the nonparametric Fisher-Rao metric on the manifold of probability density functions. Under the square-root density representation, the manifold can be identified with the positive orthant of the unit hypersphere in L2, and the Fisher-Rao metric reduces to the standard L2 metric. Exploiting such a Riemannian structure, we formulate the task of approximating the posterior distribution as a variational problem on the hypersphere based on the alpha-divergence. This provides a tighter lower boun…
University of Oxford（牛津大学）；University of Texas at Austin（德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校）
Bayesian learning is built on an assumption that the model space contains a true reflection of the data generating mechanism. This assumption is problematic, particularly in complex data environments. Here we present a Bayesian nonparametric approach to learning that makes use of statistical models, but does not assume that the model is true. Our approach has provably better properties than using a parametric model and admits a Monte Carlo sampling scheme that can afford massive scalability on modern computer architectures. The model-based aspect of learning is particularly attractive for regu…
The success of deep learning has inspired recent interests in applying neural networks in statistical inference. In this paper, we investigate the use of deep neural networks for nonparametric regression with measurement errors. We propose an efficient neural network design for estimating measurement error models, in which we use a fully connected feed-forward neural network (FNN) to approximate the regression function $f(x)$, a normalizing flow to approximate the prior distribution of $X$, and an inference network to approximate the posterior distribution of $X$. Our method utilizes recent ad…
It is now widely accepted that knowledge can be acquired from networks by clustering their vertices according to connection profiles. Many methods have been proposed and in this paper we concentrate on the Stochastic Block Model (SBM). The clustering of vertices and the estimation of SBM model parameters have been subject to previous work and numerous inference strategies such as variational Expectation Maximization (EM) and classification EM have been proposed. However, SBM still suffers from a lack of criteria to estimate the number of components in the mixture. To our knowledge, only one mo…
Adobe Research（Adobe研究院）；Princeton University（普林斯顿大学）；Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）；University of California, Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）
We develop stochastic variational inference, a scalable algorithm for approximating posterior distributions. We develop this technique for a large class of probabilistic models and we demonstrate it with two probabilistic topic models, latent Dirichlet allocation and the hierarchical Dirichlet process topic model. Using stochastic variational inference, we analyze several large collections of documents: 300K articles from Nature, 1.8M articles from The New York Times, and 3.8M articles from Wikipedia. Stochastic inference can easily handle data sets of this size and outperforms traditional var…
The advent of single-cell sequencing opens new avenues for personalized treatment. In this paper, we address a two-level clustering problem of simultaneous subject subgroup discovery (subject level) and cell type detection (cell level) for single-cell expression data from multiple subjects. However, current statistical approaches either cluster cells without considering the subject heterogeneity or group subjects without using the single-cell information. To bridge the gap between cell clustering and subject grouping, we develop a nonparametric Bayesian model, Subject and Cell clustering for S…
In many applications, a control procedure is required to detect potential deviations in a panel of serially correlated processes. It is common that the processes are corrupted by noise and that no prior information about the in-control data are available for that purpose. This paper suggests a general nonparametric monitoring scheme for supervising such a panel with time-varying mean and variance. The method is based on a control chart designed by block bootstrap, which does not require parametric assumptions on the distribution of the data. The procedure is tailored to cope with strong noise,…
