We propose an approach to simulating trajectories of multiple interacting agents (road users) based on transformers and probabilistic graphical models (PGMs), and apply it to the Waymo SimAgents challenge. The transformer baseline is based on the MTR model, which predicts multiple future trajectories conditioned on the past trajectories and static road layout features. We then improve upon these generated trajectories using a PGM, which contains factors which encode prior knowledge, such as a preference for smooth trajectories, and avoidance of collisions with static obstacles and other moving agents. We perform (approximate) MAP inference in this PGM using the Gauss-Newton method. Finally we sample $K=32$ trajectories for each of the $N \sim 100$ agents for the next $T=8 Δ$ time steps, where $Δ=10$ is the sampling rate per second. Following the Model Predictive Control (MPC) paradigm, we only return the first element of our forecasted trajectories at each step, and then we replan, so that the simulation can constantly adapt to its changing environment. We therefore call our approach "Model Predictive Simulation" or MPS. We show that MPS improves upon the MTR baseline, especially in safety critical metrics such as collision rate. Furthermore, our approach is compatible with any underlying forecasting model, and does not require extra training, so we believe it is a valuable contribution to the community.
Causal graphs (CGs) are compact representations of the knowledge of the data generating processes behind the data distributions. When a CG is available, e.g., from the domain knowledge, we can infer the conditional independence (CI) relations that should hold in the data distribution. However, it is not straightforward how to incorporate this knowledge into predictive modeling. In this work, we propose a model-agnostic data augmentation method that allows us to exploit the prior knowledge of the CI encoded in a CG for supervised machine learning. We theoretically justify the proposed method by…
Structured Cooperative Learning with Graphical Model Priors
University of Science and Technology of China（中国科学技术大学）；University of Maryland, College Park（马里兰大学帕克分校）；The University of Sydney（悉尼大学）；Institute of Artificial Intelligence, Hefei Comprehensive National Science Center（合肥综合性国家科学中心人工智能研究院）
This paper studies the decentralized learning of tree-structured Gaussian graphical models (GGMs) from noisy data. In decentralized learning, data set is distributed across different machines (sensors), and GGMs are widely used to model complex networks such as gene regulatory networks and social networks. The proposed decentralized learning uses the Chow-Liu algorithm for estimating the tree-structured GGM. In previous works, upper bounds on the probability of incorrect tree structure recovery were given mostly without any practical noise for simplification. While this paper investigates the …
Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）；The Jessara Group（杰萨拉集团）；University of Texas at Austin（德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校）
A unifying mathematical formulation is needed to move from one-off digital twins built through custom implementations to robust digital twin implementations at scale. This work proposes a probabilistic graphical model as a formal mathematical representation of a digital twin and its associated physical asset. We create an abstraction of the asset-twin system as a set of coupled dynamical systems, evolving over time through their respective state-spaces and interacting via observed data and control inputs. The formal definition of this coupled system as a probabilistic graphical model enables u…
Learning the hub graphical Lasso model with the structured sparsity via an efficient algorithm
School of Mathematics, Southwest Jiaotong University（西南交通大学数学学院）；School of Computer and Computing Science, Zhejiang University City College（浙江大学城市学院计算机与计算科学学院）；Engineering Systems and Design, Singapore University of Technology and Design（新加坡科技设计大学工程系统与设计）
Institute of Cognitive Neuroscience（认知神经科学研究所）；Gatsby Computational Neuroscience Unit（盖茨比计算神经科学研究组）；UCL（伦敦大学学院）
A key goal of unsupervised learning is to go beyond density estimation and sample generation to reveal the structure inherent within observed data. Such structure can be expressed in the pattern of interactions between explanatory latent variables captured through a probabilistic graphical model. Although the learning of structured graphical models has a long history, much recent work in unsupervised modelling has instead emphasised flexible deep-network-based generation, either transforming independent latent generators to model complex data or assuming that distinct observed variables are de…
The University of Tokyo（东京大学）；Princeton University（普林斯顿大学）；Facebook Reality Labs（Facebook现实实验室）；Columbia University（哥伦比亚大学）；Intel Corporation（英特尔公司）
With the wide adoption of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) by cognitive neuroscience researchers, large volumes of brain imaging data have been accumulated in recent years. Aggregating these data to derive scientific insights often faces the challenge that fMRI data are high-dimensional, heterogeneous across people, and noisy. These challenges demand the development of computational tools that are tailored both for the neuroscience questions and for the properties of the data. We review a few recently developed algorithms in various domains of fMRI research: fMRI in naturalistic ta…
Probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) are powerful tools for solving systems of complex relationships over a variety of probability distributions. However, while tree-structured PGMs always result in efficient and exact solutions, inference on graph (or loopy) structured PGMs is not guaranteed to discover the optimal solutions. It is in principle possible to convert loopy PGMs to an equivalent tree structure, but this is usually impractical for interesting problems due to exponential blow-up. To address this, we developed the purge-and-merge algorithm. This algorithm iteratively nudges a malle…
Many biochemical applications such as molecular property prediction require models to generalize beyond their training domains (environments). Moreover, natural environments in these tasks are structured, defined by complex descriptors such as molecular scaffolds or protein families. Therefore, most environments are either never seen during training, or contain only a single training example. To address these challenges, we propose a new regret minimization (RGM) algorithm and its extension for structured environments. RGM builds from invariant risk minimization (IRM) by recasting simultaneous…
We consider learning Ising tree models when the observations from the nodes are corrupted by independent but non-identically distributed noise with unknown statistics. Katiyar et al. (2020) showed that although the exact tree structure cannot be recovered, one can recover a partial tree structure; that is, a structure belonging to the equivalence class containing the true tree. This paper presents a systematic improvement of Katiyar et al. (2020). First, we present a novel impossibility result by deriving a bound on the necessary number of samples for partial recovery. Second, we derive a sign…
Lifting is an efficient technique to scale up graphical models generalized to relational domains by exploiting the underlying symmetries. Concurrently, neural models are continuously expanding from grid-like tensor data into structured representations, such as various attributed graphs and relational databases. To address the irregular structure of the data, the models typically extrapolate on the idea of convolution, effectively introducing parameter sharing in their, dynamically unfolded, computation graphs. The computation graphs themselves then reflect the symmetries of the underlying data…
Bosch Center for Artificial Intelligence（博世人工智能中心）；Hasso Plattner Institute（哈索·普拉特纳研究所）；University of Potsdam（波茨坦大学）
Deep Gaussian Processes learn probabilistic data representations for supervised learning by cascading multiple Gaussian Processes. While this model family promises flexible predictive distributions, exact inference is not tractable. Approximate inference techniques trade off the ability to closely resemble the posterior distribution against speed of convergence and computational efficiency. We propose a novel Gaussian variational family that allows for retaining covariances between latent processes while achieving fast convergence by marginalising out all global latent variables. After providi…
Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey（罗格斯大学新泽西州立大学）；Michigan State University（密歇根州立大学）
We provide high-probability sample complexity guarantees for exact structure recovery and accurate predictive learning using noise-corrupted samples from an acyclic (tree-shaped) graphical model. The hidden variables follow a tree-structured Ising model distribution, whereas the observable variables are generated by a binary symmetric channel taking the hidden variables as its input (flipping each bit independently with some constant probability $q\in [0,1/2)$). In the absence of noise, predictive learning on Ising models was recently studied by Bresler and Karzand (2020); this paper quantifie…
The cost and scarcity of fully supervised labels in statistical machine learning encourage using partially labeled data for model validation as a cheaper and more accessible alternative. Effectively collecting and leveraging weakly supervised data for large-space structured prediction tasks thus becomes an important part of an end-to-end learning system. We propose a new computationally-friendly methodology to construct predictive sets using only partially labeled data on top of black-box predictive models. To do so, we introduce "probe" functions as a way to describe weakly supervised instanc…
Graphical models are useful tools for describing structured high-dimensional probability distributions. Development of efficient algorithms for learning graphical models with least amount of data remains an active research topic. Reconstruction of graphical models that describe the statistics of discrete variables is a particularly challenging problem, for which the maximum likelihood approach is intractable. In this work, we provide the first sample-efficient method based on the Interaction Screening framework that allows one to provably learn fully general discrete factor models with node-sp…
Structured Latent Dynamics in Wireless CSI via Homomorphic World Models
Engineering Division, New York University (NYU), Abu Dhabi, UAE.（纽约大学阿布扎克分校工程系）；Center for Wireless Communications, University of Oulu, Finland.（奥卢大学无线通信中心）；NYU WIRELESS, NYU Tandon School of Engineering, New York, USA.（纽约大学无线技术实验室，纽约大学坦顿工程学院）
