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arXiv 2406.05887cs.LGcs.AI

智能电网数据稀缺条件下的少样本负荷预测:一种元学习方法

Few-Shot Load Forecasting Under Data Scarcity in Smart Grids: A Meta-Learning Approach

Aristotle University of Thessaloniki(亚里士多德大学塞萨洛尼基分校);Democritus University of Thrace(色雷克斯德谟克利特大学);NET2GRID BV(NET2GRID BV公司)

Georgios Tsoumplekas, Christos L. Athanasiadis, Dimitrios I. Doukas, Antonios Chrysopoulos, Pericles A. Mitkas

AI总结:

本文提出一种基于模型无关元学习的少样本短期负荷预测方法,通过为循环神经网络学习最优初始参数实现快速适应,并在真实数据上以新指标验证其优于迁移学习和任务特定方法12.5%。

摘要:

尽管智能电网快速扩张,个体消费者层面产生了大量数据,但在各种情况下,收集足够数据以训练准确的负荷预测模型仍然具有挑战性,甚至是不可能的。本文提出将一种成熟的模型无关元学习算法应用于少样本学习情境下的短期负荷预测。具体而言,所提方法能够仅使用极少的训练样本,在任意长度的未知负荷时间序列中快速适应并进行泛化。在该情境下,元学习模型为基础级学习器循环神经网络学习一组最优初始参数。所提模型使用来自真实消费者历史负荷消费数据的数据集进行评估。尽管所考察的负荷序列长度较短,该模型仍能产生准确的预测结果,其性能比迁移学习和任务特定机器学习方法高出12.5%。为了增强模型评估过程中的鲁棒性和公平性,本文提出了一种新的指标——平均对数百分比误差,该指标缓解了常用的MAPE指标所引入的偏差。最后,本文还开展了一系列研究,以评估模型在不同超参数和时间序列长度下的鲁棒性,结果表明所提方法在所有情况下均一致优于其他所有模型。

英文摘要:

Despite the rapid expansion of smart grids and large volumes of data at the individual consumer level, there are still various cases where adequate data collection to train accurate load forecasting models is challenging or even impossible. This paper proposes adapting an established model-agnostic meta-learning algorithm for short-term load forecasting in the context of few-shot learning. Specifically, the proposed method can rapidly adapt and generalize within any unknown load time series of arbitrary length using only minimal training samples. In this context, the meta-learning model learns an optimal set of initial parameters for a base-level learner recurrent neural network. The proposed model is evaluated using a dataset of historical load consumption data from real-world consumers. Despite the examined load series' short length, it produces accurate forecasts outperforming transfer learning and task-specific machine learning methods by $12.5\%$. To enhance robustness and fairness during model evaluation, a novel metric, mean average log percentage error, is proposed that alleviates the bias introduced by the commonly used MAPE metric. Finally, a series of studies to evaluate the model's robustness under different hyperparameters and time series lengths is also conducted, demonstrating that the proposed approach consistently outperforms all other models.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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