学术Twitter迁移失败：早期采用者的案例研究
The Failed Migration of Academic Twitter: A Case Study of Precocious Adopters
AI总结：
研究2022年Twitter所有权变更后，早期采用者向Mastodon的迁移行为，发现尽管内部连接紧密，但去中心化设计和竞争导致参与度下降，多数用户返回Twitter。
摘要：
随着2022年Twitter所有权变更以及随后内容审核政策的调整，许多学术界人士寻求将他们的讨论转移到别处，一些人尝试迁移到Mastodon。我们的研究考察了一组自组织的早期学术采用者的行为，他们在Twitter所有权变更后加入了Mastodon。利用从自愿策划的学术名单中获取的公开用户账户数据，我们追踪了这些早期采用者在Mastodon上一年内的发帖活动。我们还研究了关注-被关注和互动关系以绘制内部网络，发现迁移到Mastodon的学术子集连接良好。然而，这种强大的内部连接不足以阻止用户返回Twitter/X。我们的分析表明，早期采用者难以维持参与度，这受到Mastodon的去中心化设计以及来自Bluesky和Threads等替代品的竞争的影响。迁移努力在最初激增后失去动力，因为大多数早期采用者减少了活动或返回了Twitter。我们的生存分析进一步揭示，留存率与跨服务器多样化参与和特定主题的服务器社区密切相关。在Twitter上拥有大量现有存在的用户面临显著更高的流失风险，凸显了在去中心化生态系统中复制已有社交关系的挑战。通过考察早期采用者的协调迁移尝试，我们发现即使这个高度积极的群体也面临重大挑战，表明后期或协调较差的努力可能会遇到更大的障碍。
英文摘要：
Following changes in Twitter's ownership in 2022 and subsequent changes to content moderation policies, many in academia looked to move their discourse elsewhere and migration to Mastodon was pursued by some. Our study examines the behavior of a self-organized group of early academic adopters who joined Mastodon following changes in Twitter's ownership. Utilizing publicly available user account data drawn from a voluntarily curated list of academics, we track the posting activity of these early adopters on Mastodon over a one-year period. We also study follower-followee and interaction relationships to map internal networks, finding that the subset of academics who migrated to Mastodon were well-connected. However, this strong internal connectivity was insufficient to prevent users from returning to Twitter/X. Our analyses show that early adopters struggled to maintain engagement, shaped by Mastodon's decentralized design and competition from alternatives such as Bluesky and Threads. The migration effort lost momentum after an initial surge, as most early adopters reduced activity or returned to Twitter. Our survival analysis further reveals that retention is strongly linked to diverse cross-server engagement and topic-specific server communities. Users with large pre-existing Twitter presence face significantly higher attrition risk, highlighting the challenge of replicating established social connections in a decentralized ecosystem. By examining the coordinated migration attempt of early adopters, we find that even this highly motivated group faced substantial challenges, suggesting that later or less coordinated efforts would likely encounter even greater barriers.
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