近期全球气温激增因创纪录的行星反照率低值而加剧
Recent global temperature surge amplified by record-low planetary albedo
AI总结:
本研究发现2023年全球气温激增主要由创纪录的行星反照率低值驱动,该低值源于低云覆盖减少,这对评估未来变暖趋势至关重要。
摘要:
2023年,全球平均温度飙升至比工业化前水平高1.48K,超过之前记录0.17K。先前对包括人为变暖和厄尔尼诺现象发生等已知驱动因素的最佳猜测估计,在解释这一温度上升时存在约0.2K的不足。利用卫星和再分析数据,我们确定创纪录的行星反照率低值是弥补这一差距的主要因素。该下降主要由北半球中纬度和热带地区低云覆盖减少引起,延续了多年趋势。理解低云趋势在多大程度上归因于内部变率、气溶胶浓度降低或可能正在出现的低云反馈,对于评估当前和预期的未来变暖至关重要。
英文摘要:
In 2023, the global mean temperature soared to 1.48K above the pre-industrial level, surpassing the previous record by 0.17K. Previous best-guess estimates of known drivers including anthropogenic warming and the El Nino onset fall short by about 0.2K in explaining the temperature rise. Utilizing satellite and reanalysis data, we identify a record-low planetary albedo as the primary factor bridging this gap. The decline is caused largely by a reduced low-cloud cover in the northern mid-latitudes and tropics, in continuation of a multi-annual trend. Understanding how much of the low-cloud trend is due to internal variability, reduced aerosol concentrations, or a possibly emerging low-cloud feedback will be crucial for assessing the current and expected future warming.
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