大型语言模型选择对收益与投资回报率的经济影响：一个决策理论模型
The Economic Implications of Large Language Model Selection on Earnings and Return on Investment: A Decision Theoretic Model
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中文总结 AI 辅助
本文提出一个决策理论框架，评估不同大型语言模型在商业应用中的收益与投资回报率，发现高成本模型的高准确性可带来更大收益但未必更高RoI，并识别出影响经济敏感性的关键变量。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
在商业环境中选择语言模型需要对投资的最终财务收益进行仔细分析。然而，学术界和工业界对LLM的分析重点仅放在性能上。本文引入了一个评估LLM的框架，重点关注在商业决策中应考虑的收益和投资回报率方面。我们采用决策理论方法比较不同LLM的财务影响，考虑每令牌成本、特定任务成功概率以及使用LLM相关的收益和损失等变量。研究揭示了在特定条件下，更昂贵模型的更高准确性可以通过更显著的收益来证明更大投资的合理性，但不一定带来更高的RoI。本文为寻求优化技术选择的公司提供了一个框架，确保对前沿技术的投资与战略财务目标保持一致。此外，我们讨论了运营变量的变化如何影响使用LLM的经济性，为企业环境提供了实用见解，发现预测的收益和损失以及不同的成功和失败概率是影响模型敏感性的最重要变量。
英文摘要
Selecting language models in business contexts requires a careful analysis of the final financial benefits of the investment. However, the emphasis of academia and industry analysis of LLM is solely on performance. This work introduces a framework to evaluate LLMs, focusing on the earnings and return on investment aspects that should be taken into account in business decision making. We use a decision-theoretic approach to compare the financial impact of different LLMs, considering variables such as the cost per token, the probability of success in the specific task, and the gain and losses associated with LLMs use. The study reveals how the superior accuracy of more expensive models can, under certain conditions, justify a greater investment through more significant earnings but not necessarily a larger RoI. This article provides a framework for companies looking to optimize their technology choices, ensuring that investment in cutting-edge technology aligns with strategic financial objectives. In addition, we discuss how changes in operational variables influence the economics of using LLMs, offering practical insights for enterprise settings, finding that the predicted gain and loss and the different probabilities of success and failure are the variables that most impact the sensitivity of the models.
发表机构
- Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro（里约热内卢联邦大学）
- Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro（里约热内卢农村联邦大学）
- CEFET/RJ, Unidade Nova Iguaçu（里约热内卢联邦教育、科学和技术中心新伊瓜苏校区）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。
