信贷、土地投机与长期经济增长
Credit, Land Speculation, and Long-Run Economic Growth
AI总结：
本文构建两部门内生增长模型，证明信贷扩张的增长效应取决于其流向：房地产融资扩张助长杠杆土地投机并抑制增长，而生产性资本投资融资扩张则促进增长。
摘要：
本文提出一个模型，研究在两部门内生增长经济中，由抵押品价值上升或低利率政策引发的信贷扩张对长期生产率和经济增长的影响；其中增长动力位于一个部门（制造业），而非另一个部门（房地产）。研究表明，对长期生产率和经济增长真正重要的并非总量信贷扩张，而是部门层面的信贷扩张。主要与放松房地产融资相关的信贷扩张会抑制生产率和增长，而与资本投资融资相关的信贷扩张则会提升二者。在缺乏金融监管的情况下，低利率和更具扩张性的货币政策可能极大地鼓励利用杠杆进行土地投机，从而降低生产性资本投资和经济增长。与标准宏观经济模型不同，在本文模型中，即使安全利率低于产出增长率，土地的均衡价格也将是有限的。
英文摘要：
This paper presents a model that studies the impact of credit expansions arising from increases in collateral values or lower interest rate policies on long-run productivity and economic growth in a two-sector endogenous growth economy, with the driver of growth lying in one sector (manufacturing) but not in the other (real estate). We show that it is not so much aggregate credit expansion that matters for long-run productivity and economic growth but sectoral credit expansions. Credit expansions associated mainly with relaxation of real estate financing (capital investment financing) will be productivity-and growth-retarding (enhancing). Without financial regulations, low interest rates and more expansionary monetary policy may so encourage land speculation using leverage that productive capital investment and economic growth are decreased. Unlike in standard macroeconomic models, in ours, the equilibrium price of land will be finite even if the safe rate of interest is less than the rate of output growth.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
