JWST observations of the 7-planet TRAPPIST-1 system will provide an excellent opportunity to test outcomes of stellar-driven evolution of terrestrial planetary atmospheres, including atmospheric escape, ocean loss and abiotic oxygen production. While most previous studies use a single luminosity evolution for the host star, we incorporate observational uncertainties in stellar mass, luminosity evolution, system age, and planetary parameters to statistically explore the plausible range of planetary atmospheric escape outcomes. We present probabilistic distributions of total water loss and oxygen production as a function of initial water content, for planets with initially pure water atmospheres and no interior-atmosphere exchange. We find that the interior planets are desiccated for initial water contents below 50 Earth oceans. For TRAPPIST-1e, f, g, and h, we report maximum water loss ranges of 8.0$^{+1.3}_{-0.9}$, 4.8$^{+0.6}_{-0.4}$, 3.4$^{+0.3}_{-0.3}$, and 0.8$^{+0.2}_{-0.1}$ Earth oceans, respectively, with corresponding maximum oxygen retention of 1290$^{+75}_{-75}$, 800$^{+40}_{-40}$, 560$^{+30}_{-25}$, and 90$^{+10}_{-10}$ bars. We explore statistical constraints on initial water content imposed by current water content, which could inform evolutionary history and planet formation. If TRAPPIST-1b is airless while TRAPPIST-1c possesses a tenuous oxygen atmosphere, as initial JWST observations suggest, then our models predict an initial surface water content of 8.2$^{+1.5}_{-1.0}$ Earth oceans for these worlds, leading to the outer planets retaining $>$1.5 Earth oceans after entering the habitable zone. Even if TRAPPIST-1c is airless, surface water on the outer planets would not be precluded.
The presence of an atmosphere over sufficiently long timescales is widely perceived as one of the most prominent criteria associated with planetary surface habitability. We address the crucial question as to whether the seven Earth-sized planets transiting the recently discovered ultracool dwarf star TRAPPIST-1 are capable of retaining their atmospheres. To this effect, we carry out numerical simulations to characterize the stellar wind of TRAPPIST-1 and the atmospheric ion escape rates for all the seven planets. We also estimate the escape rates analytically and demonstrate that they are in g…
Transiting compact multi-planet systems provide many unique opportunities to characterize the planets, including studies of size distributions, mean densities, orbital dynamics, and atmospheric compositions. The relatively short orbital periods in these systems ensure that events requiring specific orbital locations of the planets (such as primary transit and secondary eclipse points) occur with high frequency. The orbital motion and associated phase variations of the planets provide a means to constrain the atmospheric compositions through measurement of their albedos. Here we describe the ex…
The ultracool dwarf star TRAPPIST-1 hosts seven Earth-size transiting planets, some of which could harbour liquid water on their surfaces. UV observations are essential to measure their high-energy irradiation, and to search for photodissociated water escaping from their putative atmospheres. Our new observations of TRAPPIST-1 Ly-$α$ line during the transit of TRAPPIST-1c show an evolution of the star emission over three months, preventing us from assessing the presence of an extended hydrogen exosphere. Based on the current knowledge of the stellar irradiation, we investigated the likely hist…
Seven temperate Earth-sized exoplanets readily amenable for atmospheric studies transit the nearby ultracool dwarf star TRAPPIST-1 (refs 1,2). Their atmospheric regime is unknown and could range from extended primordial hydrogen-dominated to depleted atmospheres (refs 3-6). Hydrogen in particular is a powerful greenhouse gas that may prevent the habitability of inner planets while enabling the habitability of outer ones (refs 6-8). An atmosphere largely dominated by hydrogen, if cloud-free, should yield prominent spectroscopic signatures in the near-infrared detectable during transits. Observa…
Rocky exoplanets orbiting in the habitable zone (HZ) of nearby M dwarfs provide unique opportunities for characterizing their atmospheres and searching for biosignature gases. TRAPPIST-1e, a temperate Earth-sized exoplanet in the HZ of a nearby M dwarf, is arguably the most favorable target for ground- and space-based atmospheric characterization by the extremely large telescopes (ELTs) and the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). To inform future observations in reflected and emitted lights using these upcoming telescopes, we simulate the high-resolution reflection and emission spectra for TRAP…
Coupled Photochemical-Climate Modeling of Plausible Tenuous Outgassed Atmospheres on the TRAPPIST-1 Planets
University of Washington（华盛顿大学）；SETI Institute（SETI研究所）；Eastern Wyoming College（东怀俄明学院）；University of Colorado, Boulder（科罗拉多大学博尔德分校）；Laboratory for Atmosphere and Space Physics（大气与空间物理实验室）；Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology（加州理工学院喷气推进实验室）
With several short-period, Earth-mass planets in the habitable zone, the TRAPPIST-1 system potentially allows litho-panspermia to take place on very short timescales. We investigate the efficiency and speed of inter-planetary material transfer resulting from impacts onto the habitable zone planets. By simulating trajectories of impact ejecta from their moment of ejection until (re-)accretion, we find that transport between the habitable zone planets is fastest for ejection velocities around and just above planetary escape velocity. At these ejection velocities, ${\sim}10\%$ of the ejected mate…
The TRAPPIST-1 planetary system provides an unprecedented opportunity to study terrestrial exoplanet evolution with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and ground-based observatories. Since M dwarf planets likely experience extreme volatile loss, the TRAPPIST-1 planets may have highly-evolved, possibly uninhabitable atmospheres. We used a versatile, 1D terrestrial-planet climate model with line-by-line radiative transfer and mixing length convection (VPL Climate) coupled to a terrestrial photochemistry model to simulate environmental states for the TRAPPIST-1 planets. We present equilibrium …
Exoplanets residing close to their stars can experience evolution of both their physical structures and their orbits due to the influence of their host stars. In this work, we present a coupled analysis of dynamical tidal dissipation and atmospheric mass loss for exoplanets in XUV irradiated environments. As our primary application, we use this model to study the TRAPPIST-1 system, and place constraints on the interior structure and orbital evolution of the planets. We start by reporting on a UV continuum flux measurement (centered around $\sim1900$ Angstroms) for the star TRAPPIST-1, based on…
Recent observations of the potentially habitable planets TRAPPIST-1 e, f, and g suggest that they possess large water mass fractions of possibly several tens of wt% of water, even though the host star's activity should drive rapid atmospheric escape. These processes can photolyze water, generating free oxygen and possibly desiccating the planet. After the planets formed, their mantles were likely completely molten with volatiles dissolving and exsolving from the melt. In order to understand these planets and prepare for future observations, the magma ocean phase of these worlds must be underst…
The TRAPPIST-1 system offers the opportunity to characterize terrestrial, potentially habitable planets orbiting a nearby ultracool dwarf star. We performed a four-orbit reconnaissance with the Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph onboard the Hubble Space Telescope to study the stellar emission at Lyman-$α$, to assess the presence of hydrogen exospheres around the two inner planets, and to determine their UV irradiation. We detect the Lyman-$α$ line of TRAPPIST-1, making it the coldest exoplanet host star for which this line has been measured. We reconstruct the intrinsic line profile, showing…
The TRAPPIST-1 system, consisting of an ultra-cool host star having seven known Earth-size planets will be a prime target for atmospheric characterization with JWST. However, the detectability of atmospheric molecular species may be severely impacted by the presence of clouds and/or hazes. In this work, we perform 3-D General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations with the LMD Generic model supplemented by 1-D photochemistry simulations at the terminator with the Atmos model to simulate several possible atmospheres for TRAPPIST-1e, 1f and 1g: 1) modern Earth, 2) Archean Earth, and 3) CO2-rich atm…
The era of atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets is just around the corner. Modeling prior to observations is crucial in order to predict the observational challenges and to prepare for the data interpretation. This paper presents the report of the TRAPPIST Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI) workshop (14-16 September 2020). A review of the climate models and parameterizations of the atmospheric processes on terrestrial exoplanets, model advancements and limitations, as well as direction for future model development was discussed. We hope that this report will be used …
The Trappist-1 planets provide a unique opportunity to test the current understanding of rocky planet evolution. The James Webb Space Telescope is expected to characterize the atmospheres of these planets, potentially detecting CO$_2$, CO, H$_2$O, CH$_4$, or abiotic O$_2$ from water photodissociation and subsequent hydrogen escape. Here, we apply a coupled atmosphere-interior evolution model to the Trappist-1 planets to anticipate their modern atmospheres. This model, which has previously been validated for Earth and Venus, connects magma ocean crystallization to temperate geochemical cycling.…
Recently, transmission spectroscopy in the atmospheres of the TRAPPIST-1 planets revealed flat and featureless absorption spectra, which rule out cloud-free hydrogen-dominated atmospheres. Earth-sized planets orbiting TRAPPIST-1 likely have either a clear or a cloudy/hazy hydrogen-poor atmosphere. In this paper, we investigate whether a proposed formation scenario is consistent with expected atmospheric compositions of the TRAPPIST-1 planets. We examine the amount of a hydrogen-rich gas that TRAPPIST-1-like planets accreted from the ambient disk until disk dispersal. Since TRAPPIST-1 planets a…
Using a 3D general circulation model, we demonstrate that a confirmed rocky exoplanet and a primary observational target, TRAPPIST-1e presents an interesting case of climate bistability. We find that the atmospheric circulation on TRAPPIST-1e can exist in two distinct regimes for a 1~bar nitrogen-dominated atmosphere. One is characterized by a single strong equatorial prograde jet and a large day-night temperature difference; the other is characterized by a pair of mid-latitude prograde jets and a relatively small day-night contrast. The circulation regime appears to be highly sensitive to the…
The TRAPPIST-1 system is home to at least seven terrestrial planets and is a target of interest for future James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) observations. Additionally, these planets will be of interest to future missions making observations in the ultraviolet (UV). Although several of these planets are located in the traditional habitable zone, where liquid water could exist on the surface, TRAPPIST-1h is interesting to explore as a potentially habitable ocean world analog. In this study, we evaluate the observability of a Titan-like atmosphere on TRAPPIST-1h. The ability of the JWST or a fut…
The recent discovery of three Earth-sized, potentially habitable planets around a nearby cool star, TRAPPIST-1, has provided three key targets for the upcoming James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). Depending on their atmospheric characteristics and precise orbit configurations, it is possible that any of the three planets may be in the liquid water habitable zone, meaning that they may be capable of supporting life. We find that present-day Earth levels of ozone, if present, would be detectable if JWST observes 60 transits for innermost planet 1b and 30 transits for 1c and 1d.
Atmospheric Reconnaissance of TRAPPIST-1 f with JWST NIRISS SOSS: No Evidence for the Transit Light Source Effect
Institut Trottier de recherche sur les exoplanètes, Département de Physique, Université de Montréal（蒙特利尔大学特罗蒂尔系外行星研究所物理系）；Department of Astronomy, University of Michigan（密歇根大学天文学系）
The planetary system of TRAPPIST-1, discovered in 2016-2017, is a treasure-trove of information. Thanks to a combination of observational techniques, we have estimates of the radii and masses of the seven planets of this very exotic system. With three planets within the traditional Habitable Zone limits, it is one of the best constrained system of astrobiological interest. I will review here the theoretical constraints we can put on this system by trying to reconstruct its history: its atmospheric evolution which depends on the luminosity evolution of the dwarf star, and its tidal dynamical ev…
Saturn's Moon Titan receives volatiles into the top of its atmosphere-including atomic oxygen-sourced from cryovolcanoes on Enceladus. Similar types of atmosphere exchange from one body to another, such as O2 and O3 sourced from TRAPPIST-1 d, could be introduced into the upper atmosphere of TRAPPIST-1 e and might be interpreted as biosignatures. We simulate this potential false-positive for life on TRAPPIST-1 e, by applying an external influx of water and oxygen into the top of the atmosphere using a coupled 1-D photochemical-climate model (Atmos), to predict atmospheric composition. In additi…
Terrestrial exoplanets such as TRAPPIST-1e will be observed in a new capacity with JWST/NIRSpec, which is expected to be able to detect CO$_2$, CH$_4$, and O$_2$ signals, if present, with multiple co-added transit observations. The CO$_2$-CH$_4$ pair in particular is theorized to be a potential biosignature when inferred to be in chemical disequilibrium. Here, we simulate TRAPPIST-1e's atmosphere using the ExoCAM General Circulation Model (GCM), assuming an optimistic haze-free, tidally locked planet with an aquaplanet surface, with varying atmospheric compositions from $10^{-4}$ bar to 1 bar …
Ultraviolet-Driven Atmospheric Degeneracies Challenge Conventional Biosignature Frameworks for Terrestrial Planets with Ultracool M Dwarf Hosts: An Archean-Analog TRAPPIST-1 e Case Study
University of California, Riverside（加州大学河滨分校）；Blue Marble Space Institute of Science（蓝大理石太空科学研究所）；University of Maryland, Baltimore County（马里兰大学巴尔的摩县分校）；NASA Goddard Space Flight Center（NASA戈达德太空飞行中心）；SETI Institute（搜寻地外文明研究所）；NASA Ames Research Center（NASA艾姆斯研究中心）
The TRAPPIST-1 planetary system is favourable for transmission spectroscopy and offers the unique opportunity to study rocky planets with possibly non-primary envelopes. We present here the transmission spectrum of the seventh planet of the TRAPPIST-1 system, TRAPPIST-1 h (R$_{\rm P}$=0.752 R$_{\oplus}$, T$_{\rm eq}$=173K) using Hubble Space Telescope (HST), Wide Field Camera 3 Grism 141 (WFC3/G141) data. First we extracted and corrected the raw data to obtain a transmission spectrum in the near-infrared (NIR) band (1.1-1.7$μ$m). We corrected for stellar modulations using three different stell…
One focus of modern astronomy is to detect temperate terrestrial exoplanets well-suited for atmospheric characterisation. A milestone was recently achieved with the detection of three Earth-sized planets transiting (i.e. passing in front of) a star just 8% the mass of the Sun 12 parsecs away. Indeed, the transiting configuration of these planets with the Jupiter-like size of their host star - named TRAPPIST-1 - makes possible in-depth studies of their atmospheric properties with current and future astronomical facilities. Here we report the results of an intensive photometric monitoring campai…
Upcoming telescopes such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), or the Extremely Large Telescope (ELTs), may soon be able to characterize, through transmission, emission or reflection spectroscopy, the atmospheres of rocky exoplanets orbiting nearby M dwarfs. One of the most promising candidates is the late M dwarf system TRAPPIST-1 which has seven known transiting planets for which Transit Timing Variation (TTV) measurements suggest that they are terrestrial in nature, with a possible enrichment in volatiles. Among these seven planets, TRAPPIST-1e seems to be the most promising candidate t…
With the discovery of rocky planets in the temperate habitable zone (HZ) of the close-by cool star TRAPPIST-1 the question of whether such planets could harbour life arises. Habitable planets around red dwarf stars can orbit in radiation environments that can be life-sterilizing. UV flares from these stars are more frequent and intense than solar flares. Additionally, their temperate HZs are closer to the star. Here we present UV surface environment models for TRAPPIST-1's HZ planets and explore the implications for life. TRAPPIST-1 has high X-ray/EUV activity, placing planetary atmospheres at…
TRAPPIST-1 is a nearby 0.08 M M-star, which was recently found to harbor a planetary system of at least seven Earth-mass planets, all within 0.1 au. The configuration confounds theorists as the planets are not easily explained by either in situ or migration models. In this Paper we present a scenario for the formation and orbital architecture of the TRAPPIST-1 system. In our model, planet formation starts at the H2O iceline, where pebble-size particles -- whose origin is the outer disk -- concentrate to trigger streaming instabilities. After their formation, planetary embryos quickly mature by…
With the commissioning of powerful, new-generation telescopes such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and the ground-based Extremely Large Telescopes, the first characterization of a high molecular weight atmosphere around a temperate rocky exoplanet is imminent. Atmospheric simulations and synthetic observables of target exoplanets are essential to prepare and interpret these observations. Here we report the results of the first part of the TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI) project, which compares 3D numerical simulations performed with four state-of-the-art global …
The closest stars that harbor potentially habitable planets are cool M-stars. Upcoming ground- and space-based telescopes will be able to search the atmosphere of such planets for a range of chemicals. To facilitate this search and to inform upcoming observations, we model the high-resolution reflection spectra of two of the closest potentially habitable exoplanets for a range of terrestrial atmospheres and surface pressures for active and inactive phases of their host stars for both oxic and anoxic conditions: Proxima b, the closest potentially habitable exoplanet, and Trappist-1e, one of 3 E…
One of the most significant goals of modern science is establishing whether life exists around other suns. The most direct path towards its achievement is the detection and atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets with potentially habitable surface conditions. The nearest ultracool dwarfs (UCDs), i.e. very-low-mass stars and brown dwarfs with effective temperatures lower than 2700 K, represent a unique opportunity to reach this goal within the next decade. The potential of the transit method for detecting potentially habitable Earth-sized planets around these objects is drastical…
The TRAPPIST-1 planetary system represents an exceptional opportunity for the atmospheric characterization of temperate terrestrial exoplanets with the upcoming James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). Assessing the potential impact of stellar contamination on the planets' transit transmission spectra is an essential precursor step to this characterization. Planetary transits themselves can be used to scan the stellar photosphere and to constrain its heterogeneity through transit depth variations in time and wavelength. In this context, we present our analysis of 169 transits observed in the optical…
The TRAPPIST-1 planetary system is an excellent candidate for study of the evolution and habitability of M-dwarf planets. Transmission spectroscopy observations performed with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) suggest the innermost five planets do not possess clear hydrogen atmospheres. Here we reassess these conclusions with recently updated mass constraints and expand the analysis to include limits on metallicity, cloud top pressure, and the strength of haze scattering. We connect recent laboratory results of particle size and production rate for exoplanet hazes to a one-dimensional atmospher…
Variations in the reflective properties of the bulk material that comprises the surface of land-dominated planets will affect the planetary energy balance by interacting differently with incident radiation from the host star. Furthermore, low-mass cool stars, such as nearby M8V dwarf TRAPPIST-1, emit a significant fraction of their flux in longer wavelengths relative to the Sun in regions where terrestrial materials may exhibit additional variability in albedo. Using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) we investigate the effect of the composition of the land surface and its albedo on plane…
TRAPPIST-1 is a nearby ultra-cool dwarf star transited by seven rocky planets. We observed three transits of its outermost planet, TRAPPIST-1h, using the G141 grism of the Wide Field Camera 3 instrument aboard the Hubble Space Telescope to place constraints on its potentially cold atmosphere. In order to deal with the effect of stellar contamination, we model TRAPPIST-1 active regions as portions of a cooler and a hotter photosphere, and generate multi-temperature models that we compare to the out-of-transit spectrum of the star. Using the inferred spot parameters, we produce corrected transmi…
Ultracool dwarfs (UCD; $T_{\rm eff}<\sim3000~$K) cool to settle on the main sequence after $\sim$1 Gyr. For brown dwarfs, this cooling never stops. Their habitable zone (HZ) thus sweeps inward at least during the first Gyr of their lives. Assuming they possess water, planets found in the HZ of UCDs have experienced a runaway greenhouse phase too hot for liquid water prior to entering the HZ. It has been proposed that such planets are desiccated by this hot early phase and enter the HZ as dry worlds. Here we model the water loss during this pre-HZ hot phase taking into account recent upper limi…
Three Earth-sized exoplanets were recently discovered close to the habitable zone of the nearby ultracool dwarf star TRAPPIST-1. The nature of these planets has yet to be determined, since their masses remain unmeasured and no observational constraint is available for the planetary population surrounding ultracool dwarfs, of which the TRAPPIST-1 planets are the first transiting example. Theoretical predictions span the entire atmospheric range from depleted to extended hydrogen-dominated atmospheres. Here, we report a space-based measurement of the combined transmission spectrum of the two inn…
The TRAPPIST-1 system is unique in that it has a chain of seven terrestrial Earth-like planets located close to or in its habitable zone. In this paper, we study the effect of potential cometary impacts on the TRAPPIST-1 planets and how they would affect the primordial atmospheres of these planets. We consider both atmospheric mass loss and volatile delivery with a view to assessing whether any sort of life has a chance to develop. We ran N-body simulations to investigate the orbital evolution of potential impacting comets, to determine which planets are more likely to be impacted and the dist…
Exoplanets with substantial Hydrogen/Helium atmospheres have been discovered in abundance, many residing extremely close to their parent stars. The extreme irradiation levels these atmospheres experience causes them to undergo hydrodynamic atmospheric escape. Ongoing atmospheric escape has been observed to be occurring in a few nearby exoplanet systems through transit spectroscopy both for hot Jupiters and lower-mass super-Earths/mini-Neptunes. Detailed hydrodynamic calculations that incorporate radiative transfer and ionization chemistry are now common in one-dimensional models, and multi-dim…
