内生供应链中的风险传播
Risk Propagation in Endogenous Supply Chains
AI总结：
本文研究内生供应链形成及其对中断传播的影响，发现风险相关性降低多元化激励，导致脆弱网络；通过社会计划者问题证明内化风险降低可增强韧性，且不完全信息带来低效但更稳健的供应链。
摘要：
本文研究了供应链的内生形成及其对中断传播的影响。在生产网络中，当上游风险高度相关且供应商关系不可观测时，增加一个额外供应商所带来的边际风险降低是较低的，因为该额外供应商的风险很可能与公司现有供应商的风险相关。这一渠道降低了企业进行多元化的激励，从而导致了效率低下的脆弱生产网络。通过求解社会计划者问题，本文表明，如果下游因上游多元化而获得的风险降低能够被上游企业内化，那么内生生产网络将能够抵御大多数风险水平。此外，本文还表明，不完全信息会导致低效但更稳健的供应链。尽管模型具有程式化形式，但它识别了企业在分散风险时所面临的权衡，并分离出将这些决策聚合为生产网络的机制。此外，该模型将权衡的条件（如企业的预期利润或采购成本）映射到生产网络的属性上。
英文摘要：
This paper investigates the endogenous formation of supply chains and its consequences for disruption propagation. In production networks where upstream risk is highly correlated and supplier relationships are not observable, the marginal risk reduction of adding an additional supplier is low, because this additional supplier's risk is likely to be correlated to that of the firm's existing suppliers. This channel reduces firm incentives to diversify, which gives rise to inefficiently fragile production networks. By solving the social planner problem, I show that, if the risk reduction experienced downstream resulting from upstream diversification were to be internalised by upstream firms, endogenous production networks would be resilient to most levels of risk. Furthermore, I show that imperfect information yields inefficient but more robust supply chains. Despite its stylised form, the model identifies the trade-off firms face when diversifying risk and isolates the mechanism that aggregates these decisions into a production network. Furthermore, it maps the conditions of the trade-off, such as expected profits of the firm or the sourcing costs, to the properties of the production network.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
