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arXiv 2403.04427cs.CEcs.AI
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情感驱动的金融收益预测:一种贝叶斯增强的FinBERT方法

Sentiment-driven prediction of financial returns: a Bayesian-enhanced FinBERT approach

Politecnico di Milano(米兰理工大学)

Raffaele Giuseppe Cestari, Simone Formentin

AI总结:

针对金融收益预测难题,提出结合FinBERT情感提取、相关性分析与贝叶斯优化递归特征消除的方法,在SPY ETF数据及StockTwits推特数据上实现超70%的F1值与更高回测累计收益。

摘要:

由于金融时间序列数据存在固有不确定性,准确预测金融收益是一项重大挑战。提升预测模型性能的关键在于有效捕捉社会与金融情感。本研究展示了利用FinBERT大语言模型从推特中提取的情感信息的有效性。通过相关性分析精心筛选最优特征集,并采用贝叶斯优化的递归特征消除法进行自动特征选择,我们的方法超越了现有方法,在测试集上F1值超过70%。这一成果在回测交易中转化为显著更高的累计收益。本研究聚焦于真实的SPY ETF数据以及来自StockTwits平台的对应推特数据。

英文摘要:

Predicting financial returns accurately poses a significant challenge due to the inherent uncertainty in financial time series data. Enhancing prediction models' performance hinges on effectively capturing both social and financial sentiment. In this study, we showcase the efficacy of leveraging sentiment information extracted from tweets using the FinBERT large language model. By meticulously curating an optimal feature set through correlation analysis and employing Bayesian-optimized Recursive Feature Elimination for automatic feature selection, we surpass existing methodologies, achieving an F1-score exceeding 70% on the test set. This success translates into demonstrably higher cumulative profits during backtested trading. Our investigation focuses on real-world SPY ETF data alongside corresponding tweets sourced from the StockTwits platform.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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