公共公交服务中断的预测与缓解
Forecasting and Mitigating Disruptions in Public Bus Transit Services
AI总结：
针对公交系统中断及备用车辆选址难题，研究团队联合纳什维尔公交机构，提出数据驱动的中断预测模型与随机局部搜索选址算法，为公交机构提供实用方案，提升服务可靠性与城市出行公平性。
摘要：
公共交通系统常遭遇需求的意外波动以及机械故障、医疗紧急事件等中断情况。这些波动与中断会导致延误和过度拥挤，损害乘客体验与公交服务的整体运营表现。为主动缓解此类事件，许多公交机构在其服务区域内部署备用（储备）车辆，可调度这些车辆来增援或替换出现拥挤或中断的线路上的车辆。然而，由于中断固有的随机性，以及在城市范围内选址的组合特性，确定备用车辆的最优停靠位置是一个极具挑战性的问题。我们与美国田纳西州纳什维尔市的公交机构合作，通过引入用于预测中断的数据驱动统计模型与机器学习模型，以及一种用于选择备用车辆停靠位置的高效随机局部搜索算法，来解决这一问题。我们的研究在主动中断管理方面展现出可观的成果，为公交机构提供了一种实用且易于落地的解决方案，以提升其服务的可靠性。我们的成果意义不止于运营效率：通过推进主动应对策略，我们的方法助力打造更具韧性、更易获取的公共交通，为公平的城市出行作出贡献，最终惠及最依赖公共交通的社区。
英文摘要：
Public transportation systems often suffer from unexpected fluctuations in demand and disruptions, such as mechanical failures and medical emergencies. These fluctuations and disruptions lead to delays and overcrowding, which are detrimental to the passengers' experience and to the overall performance of the transit service. To proactively mitigate such events, many transit agencies station substitute (reserve) vehicles throughout their service areas, which they can dispatch to augment or replace vehicles on routes that suffer overcrowding or disruption. However, determining the optimal locations where substitute vehicles should be stationed is a challenging problem due to the inherent randomness of disruptions and due to the combinatorial nature of selecting locations across a city. In collaboration with the transit agency of Nashville, TN, we address this problem by introducing data-driven statistical and machine-learning models for forecasting disruptions and an effective randomized local-search algorithm for selecting locations where substitute vehicles are to be stationed. Our research demonstrates promising results in proactive disruption management, offering a practical and easily implementable solution for transit agencies to enhance the reliability of their services. Our results resonate beyond mere operational efficiency: by advancing proactive strategies, our approach fosters more resilient and accessible public transportation, contributing to equitable urban mobility and ultimately benefiting the communities that rely on public transportation the most.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
