We investigate popular resampling methods for estimating the uncertainty of statistical models, such as subsampling, bootstrap and the jackknife, and their performance in high-dimensional supervised regression tasks. We provide a tight asymptotic description of the biases and variances estimated by these methods in the context of generalized linear models, such as ridge and logistic regression, taking the limit where the number of samples $n$ and dimension $d$ of the covariates grow at a comparable fixed rate $α\!=\! n/d$. Our findings are three-fold: i) resampling methods are fraught with problems in high dimensions and exhibit the double-descent-like behavior typical of these situations; ii) only when $α$ is large enough do they provide consistent and reliable error estimations (we give convergence rates); iii) in the over-parametrized regime $α\!<\!1$ relevant to modern machine learning practice, their predictions are not consistent, even with optimal regularization.
We propose Very Simple Classifier (VSC) a novel method designed to incorporate the concepts of subsampling and locality in the definition of features to be used as the input of a perceptron. The rationale is that locality theoretically guarantees a bound on the generalization error. Each feature in VSC is a max-margin classifier built on randomly-selected pairs of samples. The locality in VSC is achieved by multiplying the value of the feature by a confidence measure that can be characterized in terms of the Chebichev inequality. The output of the layer is then fed in a output layer of neurons…
Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST)（韩国高等科学技术院（KAIST））；Chungnam National University Hospital（忠南大学医院）；Chungnam National University College of Medicine（忠南大学医学院）
Recently, deep learning approaches for MR motion artifact correction have been extensively studied. Although these approaches have shown high performance and reduced computational complexity compared to classical methods, most of them require supervised training using paired artifact-free and artifact-corrupted images, which may prohibit its use in many important clinical applications. For example, transient severe motion (TSM) due to acute transient dyspnea in Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced MR is difficult to control and model for paired data generation. To address this issue, here we propose a novel u…
Fudan University（复旦大学）；Weierstrass Institute for Applied Analysis and Stochastics（魏尔斯特拉斯应用分析与随机研究所）；Medical University of Innsbruck（因斯布鲁克医科大学）
This paper studies a Nyström type subsampling approach to large kernel learning methods in the misspecified case, where the target function is not assumed to belong to the reproducing kernel Hilbert space generated by the underlying kernel. This case is less understood, in spite of its practical importance. To model such a case, the smoothness of target functions is described in terms of general source conditions. It is surprising that almost for the whole range of the source conditions, describing the misspecified case, the corresponding learning rate bounds can be achieved with just one valu…
Massive data analysis becomes increasingly prevalent, subsampling methods like BLB (Bag of Little Bootstraps) serves as powerful tools for assessing the quality of estimators for massive data. However, the performance of the subsampling methods are highly influenced by the selection of tuning parameters ( e.g., the subset size, number of resamples per subset ). In this article we develop a hyperparameter selection methodology, which can be used to select tuning parameters for subsampling methods. Specifically, by a careful theoretical analysis, we find an analytically simple and elegant relati…
Uncertainty-Aware Strategies: A Model-Agnostic Framework for Robust Financial Optimization through Subsampling
Department of Mathematics TU Munich（数学系慕尼黑工业大学）；Mathematical Institute/ Oxford Man Institute University of Oxford（数学研究所/牛津曼研究所牛津大学）；Department of Mathematical Stochastics University of Freiburg（数学随机系弗赖堡大学）
A common approach to solving prediction tasks on large networks, such as node classification or link prediction, begin by learning a Euclidean embedding of the nodes of the network, from which traditional machine learning methods can then be applied. This includes methods such as DeepWalk and node2vec, which learn embeddings by optimizing stochastic losses formed over subsamples of the graph at each iteration of stochastic gradient descent. In this paper, we study the effects of adding an $\ell_2$ penalty of the embedding vectors to the training loss of these types of methods. We prove that, u…
The bootstrap provides a simple and powerful means of assessing the quality of estimators. However, in settings involving large datasets---which are increasingly prevalent---the computation of bootstrap-based quantities can be prohibitively demanding computationally. While variants such as subsampling and the $m$ out of $n$ bootstrap can be used in principle to reduce the cost of bootstrap computations, we find that these methods are generally not robust to specification of hyperparameters (such as the number of subsampled data points), and they often require use of more prior information (suc…
University of Tennessee Knoxville（田纳西大学诺克斯维尔分校）；University of Southern California（南加州大学）
The weighted nearest neighbors (WNN) estimator has been popularly used as a flexible and easy-to-implement nonparametric tool for mean regression estimation. The bagging technique is an elegant way to form WNN estimators with weights automatically generated to the nearest neighbors; we name the resulting estimator as the distributional nearest neighbors (DNN) for easy reference. Yet, there is a lack of distributional results for such estimator, limiting its application to statistical inference. Moreover, when the mean regression function has higher-order smoothness, DNN does not achieve the op…
The bootstrap provides a simple and powerful means of assessing the quality of estimators. However, in settings involving large datasets, the computation of bootstrap-based quantities can be prohibitively demanding. As an alternative, we present the Bag of Little Bootstraps (BLB), a new procedure which incorporates features of both the bootstrap and subsampling to obtain a robust, computationally efficient means of assessing estimator quality. BLB is well suited to modern parallel and distributed computing architectures and retains the generic applicability, statistical efficiency, and favorab…
This work demonstrates the ability to produce readily interpretable statistical metrics for model fit, fixed effects covariance coefficients, and prediction confidence. Importantly, this work compares 4 suitable and commonly applied epistemic UQ approaches, BNN, SWAG, MC dropout, and ensemble approaches in their ability to calculate these statistical metrics for the ARMED MEDL models. In our experiment for AD prognosis, not only do the UQ methods provide these benefits, but several UQ methods maintain the high performance of the original ARMED method, some even provide a modest (but not statis…
This paper examines a novel gradient boosting framework for regression. We regularize gradient boosted trees by introducing subsampling and employ a modified shrinkage algorithm so that at every boosting stage the estimate is given by an average of trees. The resulting algorithm, titled Boulevard, is shown to converge as the number of trees grows. We also demonstrate a central limit theorem for this limit, allowing a characterization of uncertainty for predictions. A simulation study and real world examples provide support for both the predictive accuracy of the model and its limiting behavior…
Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts（马其顿科学艺术院）；Temple University（天普大学）
Decision trees and logistic regression are one of the most popular and well-known machine learning algorithms, frequently used to solve a variety of real-world problems. Stability of learning algorithms is a powerful tool to analyze their performance and sensitivity and subsequently allow researchers to draw reliable conclusions. The stability of these two algorithms has remained obscure. To that end, in this paper, we derive two stability notions for decision trees and logistic regression: hypothesis and pointwise hypothesis stability. Additionally, we derive these notions for L2-regularized …
Peking University（北京大学）；Stevens Institute of Technology（史蒂文斯理工学院）
Subsampled Newton methods approximate Hessian matrices through subsampling techniques, alleviating the cost of forming Hessian matrices but using sufficient curvature information. However, previous results require $Ω(d)$ samples to approximate Hessians, where $d$ is the dimension of data points, making it less practically feasible for high-dimensional data. The situation is deteriorated when $d$ is comparably as large as the number of data points $n$, which requires to take the whole dataset into account, making subsampling useless. This paper theoretically justifies the effectiveness of subsa…
We consider statistical inference for impulse responses in sparse, structural high-dimensional vector autoregressive (SVAR) systems. We introduce consistent estimators of impulse responses in the high-dimensional setting and suggest valid inference procedures for the same parameters. Statistical inference in our setting is much more involved since standard procedures, like the delta-method, do not apply. By using local projection equations, we first construct a de-sparsified version of regularized estimators of the moving average parameters associated with the VAR system. We then obtain estima…
