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arXiv 2402.12415cs.LGcs.CY
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基于车辆组的高速公路碰撞风险预测与解释

Vehicle-group-based Crash Risk Prediction and Interpretation on Highways

Purdue University(普渡大学);University of Central Florida(中佛罗里达大学)

Tianheng Zhu, Ling Wang, Yiheng Feng, Wanjing Ma, Mohamed Abdel-Aty

AI总结:

本文提出基于车辆组的高速公路碰撞风险分析方法,通过基于影响的车辆分组和逆碰撞时间度量风险,并结合逻辑回归与图神经网络实现高精度风险预测与可解释分析。

摘要:

以往关于碰撞风险预测的研究主要将路段上的碰撞数量或碰撞可能性与交通参数或几何特征相关联,通常忽略了车辆连续运动及其与邻近车辆交互的影响。近年来,网联自动驾驶车辆(CAVs)和无人机(UAVs)等技术进步能够采集高分辨率轨迹数据,从而支持基于轨迹的风险分析。本研究探讨了一种新的基于车辆组(VG)的风险分析方法,并考虑车辆组特征探索风险演化机制。提出了一种基于影响的车辆分组方法,通过评估车辆对邻近车辆异常行为的响应将车辆聚类为车辆组。车辆组的风险基于组内每对车辆之间的风险进行聚合,该风险通过逆碰撞时间(iTTC)度量。随后采用逻辑回归和图神经网络(GNN),分别利用聚合和未聚合的车辆组信息预测车辆组风险。两种方法均取得优异性能,AUC值超过0.93。对于GNN模型,应用带特征扰动的GNNExplainer识别关键的个体车辆特征及其对车辆组风险的方向性影响。总体而言,本研究为识别、预测和解释交通风险提供了新的视角。

英文摘要:

Previous studies in predicting crash risks primarily associated the number or likelihood of crashes on a road segment with traffic parameters or geometric characteristics, usually neglecting the impact of vehicles' continuous movement and interactions with nearby vehicles. Recent technology advances, such as Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs) and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are able to collect high-resolution trajectory data, which enables trajectory-based risk analysis. This study investigates a new vehicle group (VG) based risk analysis method and explores risk evolution mechanisms considering VG features. An impact-based vehicle grouping method is proposed to cluster vehicles into VGs by evaluating their responses to the erratic behaviors of nearby vehicles. The risk of a VG is aggregated based on the risk between each vehicle pair in the VG, measured by inverse Time-to-Collision (iTTC). A Logistic Regression and a Graph Neural Network (GNN) are then employed to predict VG risks using aggregated and disaggregated VG information. Both methods achieve excellent performance with AUC values exceeding 0.93. For the GNN model, GNNExplainer with feature perturbation is applied to identify critical individual vehicle features and their directional impact on VG risks. Overall, this research contributes a new perspective for identifying, predicting, and interpreting traffic risks.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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