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arXiv 2402.07594cs.LGmath.DS
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利用基础推理模型对动力系统进行零样本插补

Zero-shot Imputation with Foundation Inference Models for Dynamical Systems

Lamarr Institute(拉马尔研究所);University of Bonn(波恩大学);Fraunhofer IAIS(弗劳恩霍夫智能分析与信息系统研究所)

Patrick Seifner, Kostadin Cvejoski, Antonia Körner, Ramsés J. Sánchez

AI总结:

针对 ODE 动力系统的缺失时间序列问题,提出基于合成 ODE 数据与神经识别模型的零样本插补框架,在多领域高维数据上无需微调且常优于目标数据集训练方法。

摘要:

由常微分方程(ODE)支配的动力系统可作为大量自然与社会现象的模型。在本工作中,我们对缺失时间序列数据插补这一经典问题提出了新的视角,并假设其底层动力学由 ODE 决定。具体而言,我们重新审视了摊销推理和神经算子的思想,提出了一种新颖的监督学习框架,通过满足某些(隐藏的)ODE 的参数化函数实现零样本时间序列插补。我们的方案包含两个组成部分。第一,在 ODE 解空间、观测时间和噪声机制上定义一个广泛的概率分布,并据此生成一个大型合成数据集,其中包含(隐藏的)ODE 解及其含噪、稀疏观测。第二,训练一个离线的神经识别模型,将生成的时间序列映射到(隐藏的)ODE 解的初始条件空间和时间导数空间,随后我们对其进行积分以插补缺失数据。我们通过实验证明,同一个(预训练的)识别模型能够对 63 条不同的含缺失值时间序列执行零样本插补,每条序列均采样自差异显著的动力系统。同样,我们证明该模型能够在 10 个截然不同的场景中对缺失的高维数据进行零样本插补,涵盖人体运动、空气质量、交通和电力研究,以及 Navier-Stokes 模拟,且无需任何微调。此外,我们的方案往往优于在目标数据集上训练的最先进方法。我们的预训练模型、代码仓库和教程均已在线提供。

英文摘要:

Dynamical systems governed by ordinary differential equations (ODEs) serve as models for a vast number of natural and social phenomena. In this work, we offer a fresh perspective on the classical problem of imputing missing time series data, whose underlying dynamics are assumed to be determined by ODEs. Specifically, we revisit ideas from amortized inference and neural operators, and propose a novel supervised learning framework for zero-shot time series imputation, through parametric functions satisfying some (hidden) ODEs. Our proposal consists of two components. First, a broad probability distribution over the space of ODE solutions, observation times and noise mechanisms, with which we generate a large, synthetic dataset of (hidden) ODE solutions, along with their noisy and sparse observations. Second, a neural recognition model that is trained offline, to map the generated time series onto the spaces of initial conditions and time derivatives of the (hidden) ODE solutions, which we then integrate to impute the missing data. We empirically demonstrate that one and the same (pretrained) recognition model can perform zero-shot imputation across 63 distinct time series with missing values, each sampled from widely different dynamical systems. Likewise, we demonstrate that it can perform zero-shot imputation of missing high-dimensional data in 10 vastly different settings, spanning human motion, air quality, traffic and electricity studies, as well as Navier-Stokes simulations -- without requiring any fine-tuning. What is more, our proposal often outperforms state-of-the-art methods, which are trained on the target datasets. Our pretrained model, repository and tutorials are available online.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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