日本、其他国家与国际原子能机构在福岛核废水排放决策背景下的时滞博弈策略分析
Time-Delayed Game Strategy Analysis Among Japan, Other Nations, and the International Atomic Energy Agency in the Context of Fukushima Nuclear Wastewater Discharge Decision
AI总结：
本文研究日本、他国与IAEA在福岛核废水排海决策中的博弈，通过在复制动态方程中引入收益矩阵与时滞元素分析策略稳定性，发现时滞显著影响决策演化轨迹，并强调处理技术、出口税收损失与国际合作的重要性。
摘要：
本文研究了日本、其他国家与国际原子能机构（IAEA）就日本将福岛第一核电站处理后的核废水排入海洋的决定所产生的战略互动。文章引入了收益矩阵和复制动态方程中的时滞元素，以反映现实世界中的决策延迟。通过线性化系统的特征根和数值模拟，分析了策略的稳定性及不同稳定状态的条件。研究得出结论，时滞显著影响核废水处理策略中的决策稳定性和演化轨迹。该研究强调了高效废水处理技术的重要性、出口税收损失对日本策略的影响以及国际合作的作用。研究的创新之处在于将海洋动力学和政府决策中的时滞元素整合到博弈论模型中。
英文摘要：
This academic paper examines the strategic interactions between Japan, other nations, and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) regarding Japan's decision to release treated nuclear wastewater from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant into the sea. It introduces a payoff matrix and time-delay elements in replicator dynamic equations to mirror real-world decision-making delays. The paper analyzes the stability of strategies and conditions for different stable states using characteristic roots of a linearized system and numerical simulations. It concludes that time delays significantly affect decision-making stability and evolution trajectories in nuclear wastewater disposal strategies. The study highlights the importance of efficient wastewater treatment technology, the impact of export tax revenue losses on Japan's strategies, and the role of international cooperation. The novelty of the research lies in integrating time-delay elements from ocean dynamics and governmental decision-making into the game-theoretical model.
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