Over the past few decades, many applications of physics-based simulations and data-driven techniques (including machine learning and deep learning) have emerged to analyze and predict solar flares. These approaches are pivotal in understanding the dynamics of solar flares, primarily aiming to forecast these events and minimize potential risks they may pose to Earth. Although current methods have made significant progress, there are still limitations to these data-driven approaches. One prominent drawback is the lack of consideration for the temporal evolution characteristics in the active regions from which these flares originate. This oversight hinders the ability of these methods to grasp the relationships between high-dimensional active region features, thereby limiting their usability in operations. This study centers on the development of interpretable classifiers for multivariate time series and the demonstration of a novel feature ranking method with sliding window-based sub-interval ranking. The primary contribution of our work is to bridge the gap between complex, less understandable black-box models used for high-dimensional data and the exploration of relevant sub-intervals from multivariate time series, specifically in the context of solar flare forecasting. Our findings demonstrate that our sliding-window time series forest classifier performs effectively in solar flare prediction (with a True Skill Statistic of over 85\%) while also pinpointing the most crucial features and sub-intervals for a given learning task.
Preference Isolation Forest for Structure-based Anomaly Detection
Department of Electronics, Information and Bioengineering, Politecnico di Milano（电子、信息与生物工程系，米兰理工大学）；Faculty of Informatics, Università della Svizzera Italiana（信息技术学院，意大利瑞士大学）
Georgia State University（佐治亚州立大学）；RCAAM of the Academy of Athens（雅典科学院研究计算与应用数学中心）
In analyses of rare-events, regardless of the domain of application, class-imbalance issue is intrinsic. Although the challenges are known to data experts, their explicit impact on the analytic and the decisions made based on the findings are often overlooked. This is in particular prevalent in interdisciplinary research where the theoretical aspects are sometimes overshadowed by the challenges of the application. To show-case these undesirable impacts, we conduct a series of experiments on a recently created benchmark data, named Space Weather ANalytics for Solar Flares (SWAN-SF). This is a m…
Adverse space weather effects can often be traced to solar flares, prediction of which has drawn significant research interests. The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) produces full-disk vector magnetograms with continuous high cadence, while flare prediction efforts utilizing this unprecedented data source are still limited. Here we report results of flare prediction using physical parameters provided by the Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP) and related data products. We survey X-ray flares occurred from 2010 May to 2016 December, and categorize their source regions into fou…
We propose a forecasting approach for solar flares based on data from Solar Cycle 24, taken by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission. In particular, we use the Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP) product that facilitates cut-out magnetograms of solar active regions (AR) in the Sun in near-real-time (NRT), taken over a five-year interval (2012 - 2016). Our approach utilizes a set of thirteen predictors, which are not included in the SHARP metadata, extracted from line-of-sight and vector photospheric magnetograms. We exploit…
Anomaly detection is critical in various fields, including intrusion detection, health monitoring, fault diagnosis, and sensor network event detection. The isolation forest (or iForest) approach is a well-known technique for detecting anomalies. It is, however, ineffective when dealing with dynamic streaming data, which is becoming increasingly prevalent in a wide variety of application areas these days. In this work, we extend our previous work by proposed an efficient iForest based approach for anomaly detection using cube sampling that is effective on streaming data. Cube sampling is used i…
Solar flares not only pose risks to outer space technologies and astronauts' well being, but also cause disruptions on earth to our hight-tech, interconnected infrastructure our lives highly depend on. While a number of machine-learning methods have been proposed to improve flare prediction, none of them, to the best of our knowledge, have investigated the impact of outliers on the reliability and those models' performance. In this study, we investigate the impact of outliers in a multivariate time series benchmark dataset, namely SWAN-SF, on flare prediction models, and test our hypothesis. T…
The solar X-ray irradiance is significantly heightened during the course of a solar flare, which can cause radio blackouts due to ionization of the atoms in the ionosphere. As the duration of a solar flare is not related to the size of that flare, it is not directly clear how long those blackouts can persist. Using a random forest regression model trained on data taken from X-ray light curves, we have developed a direct forecasting method that predicts how long the event will remain above background levels. We test this on a large collection of flares observed with GOES-15, and show that it ge…
Incremental Outlier Detection Modelling Using Streaming Analytics in Finance & Health Care
National Institute of Technology Warangal（瓦朗加尔国家理工学院）；Jawaharlal Nehru Technological University – Gurajada Vizianagaram (JNTU-GV)（贾瓦哈拉尔·尼赫鲁技术大学古拉贾达维齐亚纳格拉姆分校）
Solar flares create adverse space weather impacting space and Earth-based technologies. However, the difficulty of forecasting flares, and by extension severe space weather, is accentuated by the lack of any unique flare trigger or a single physical pathway. Studies indicate that multiple physical properties contribute to active region flare potential, compounding the challenge. Recent developments in machine learning (ML) have enabled analysis of higher-dimensional data leading to increasingly better flare forecasting techniques. However, consensus on high-performing flare predictors remains …
Scalable, Advanced Machine Learning-based Approaches for Stellar Flare Identification: Application to TESS short-cadence Data and Analysis of a New Flare Catalogue
We study the predictive capabilities of magnetic feature properties (MF) generated by Solar Monitor Active Region Tracker (SMART) for solar flare forecasting from two datasets: the full dataset of SMART detections from 1996 to 2010 that has been previously studied by Ahmed et al. (2011) and a subset of that dataset which only includes detections that are NOAA active regions (ARs). Main contributions: we use marginal relevance as a filter feature selection method to identify most useful SMART MF properties for separating flaring from non-flaring detections and logistic regression to derive clas…
We analyse the multiwavelength observations of an M2.9/1N flare that occurred in the active region (AR) NOAA 11112 in the vicinity of a huge filament system on 16 October 2010. SDO/HMI magnetograms reveal the emergence of a bipole (within the existing AR) 50 hours prior to the flare event. During the emergence, both the positive and negative sunspots in the bipole show translational as well as rotational motion. The positive polarity sunspot shows the significant motion/rotation in the south-westward/clockwise direction and continuously pushing/sliding the surrounding opposite polarity field r…
Institute for Development and Research in Banking Technology（银行技术发展研究院）；Center for Development of Advanced Computing（先进计算发展中心）
Gaining the trust and confidence of customers is the essence of the growth and success of financial institutions and organizations. Of late, the financial industry is significantly impacted by numerous instances of fraudulent activities. Further, owing to the generation of large voluminous datasets, it is highly essential that underlying framework is scalable and meet real time needs. To address this issue, in the study, we proposed ATM fraud detection in static and streaming contexts respectively. In the static context, we investigated a parallel and scalable machine learning algorithms for A…
