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arXiv 2402.01543cs.LGstat.ML

适应性优化用于缺失数据预测

Adaptive Optimization for Prediction with Missing Data

London Business School(伦敦商学院)

Dimitris Bertsimas, Arthur Delarue, Jean Pauphilet

AI总结:

本文提出适应性线性回归模型,通过适应观测特征来提升缺失数据预测性能,实现联合插补与回归,提升非随机缺失数据下的预测精度。

摘要:

在训练包含缺失数据的预测模型时,最常用的方法是先插补缺失值再计算预测。本文将缺失数据预测视为两阶段适应性优化问题,提出适应性线性回归模型,其回归系数适应观测特征。我们证明某些适应性线性回归模型等价于同时学习插补规则和下游线性回归模型,而非依次学习。利用这一联合插补后回归的解释,将框架扩展到非线性模型。在数据强烈非随机缺失的情况下,我们的方法在样本外准确性上提升了2-10%。

英文摘要:

When training predictive models on data with missing entries, the most widely used and versatile approach is a pipeline technique where we first impute missing entries and then compute predictions. In this paper, we view prediction with missing data as a two-stage adaptive optimization problem and propose a new class of models, adaptive linear regression models, where the regression coefficients adapt to the set of observed features. We show that some adaptive linear regression models are equivalent to learning an imputation rule and a downstream linear regression model simultaneously instead of sequentially. We leverage this joint-impute-then-regress interpretation to generalize our framework to non-linear models. In settings where data is strongly not missing at random, our methods achieve a 2-10% improvement in out-of-sample accuracy.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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