2019年法国勒泰伊（Le Teil）地震的破坏观测结果能否挑战ESHM20与ESRM20？
Can damage observations from the 2019 Le Teil (France) earthquake challenge ESHM20 and ESRM20?
AI总结：
本研究利用2019年法国勒泰伊地震的破坏观测等数据，对比ESHM20和ESRM20模型情景模拟的估算结果，发现部分差异源于震源位置等模型外因素，为地震风险模型验证提供参考。
摘要：
概率地震危险性与风险模型对于提升我们的地震风险认知、风险管理水平，以及增强地震灾害抵御能力至关重要。这类模型由一系列组件构成，各组件可单独进行测试与验证，但由于缺乏公认的流程，对这类模型进行整体测试与验证颇具挑战。借助其他模型的估算结果，以及过往地震中的地面震动与破坏观测数据，可对地面运动建模和建筑破坏严重程度相关的组件进行测试。本研究利用2019年勒泰伊地震的破坏观测数据、该地震事件的第三方宏观烈度估算结果，以及ShakeMap（震动地图）分析结果，将其与采用2020年欧洲-地中海地震危险性模型（ESHM20）和欧洲地震风险模型（ESRM20）框架下开发的模型组件开展的情景模拟估算结果进行对比。对比内容涵盖估算的地面运动强度指标、宏观烈度、受损建筑数量以及破坏等级概率。部分对比中发现的估算结果与观测结果的差异，被归因于模型外部因素，例如震源位置。
英文摘要：
Probabilistic seismic hazard and risk models are essential to improving our awareness of seismic risk, to its management, and to increasing our resilience against earthquake disasters. These models consist of a series of components, which may be tested and validated individually, however testing and validating these types of models as a whole is challenging due to the lack of recognised procedures. Estimations made with other models, as well as observations of ground shaking and damages in past earthquakes lend themselves to testing the components for ground motion modelling and for the severity of damage to buildings. Here, we are using observations of damages caused by the Le Teil 2019 earthquake, third-party estimations of macroseismic intensity for this seismic event, and ShakeMap analyses in order to make comparisons with estimations made with scenario simulations using model components developed in the context of the 2020 Euro-Mediterranean Seismic Hazard Model and the European Seismic Risk Model. The comparisons concern the estimated ground motion intensity measures, the macroseismic intensity, the number of damaged buildings, and the probabilities of the damage grade. The divergences of the estimations from the observations, which are observed in some of comparisons, are attributed to factors external to the models, such as the location of the hypocentre.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
