利用新型统计物理模型约束1850-1880年全球平均地表温度
Constraining the global mean surface temperature during 1850-1880 with new statistical physical model
AI总结：
本文提出一种新的统计物理模型，将外强迫贡献作为确定性趋势以约束1850-1880年温度重建，发现现有数据集高估该时期温度异常，表明工业化以来全球变暖速度仍被低估。
摘要：
正如IPCC评估报告所述，全球变暖是基于1850年至1900年的平均值（由相对稀疏的观测资料估算的工业化前全球平均温度）来估计的。鉴于早期阶段不可能大幅增加观测数据，准确约束这一基线已成为一个尚未解决的问题。在此，我们开发了一种新的统计物理模型，将外强迫对全球变暖的贡献量化为地表温度序列的“确定性趋势”（而不是产生随机趋势的非平稳过程），并约束了早期时间序列（1850-1880年）的重建。我们发现，现有数据集略微高估了这一时期的温度异常，因此自工业化前以来的全球变暖速度仍被低估。
英文摘要：
As IPCC ARs stated, global warming is estimated based on the average from 1850 to 1900 (global average temperature of preindustrialization estimated from relatively sparse observations). Given the impossibility of massive increasing observation data in the early stages, accurately constraining this baseline has become an unresolved issue. Here we developed a new statistical physical model to quantify the contribution of external forcings to global warming as a "deterministic trend" of the surface temperature series (instead of as non-stationary processes that yield a stochastic trend) and constrained the reconstruction of the early time series (1850-1880). We find that the existing datasets slightly overestimated the temperature anomalies in this period, thus the speed of global warming since pre-industrialization is still underestimated.
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