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arXiv 2307.08079stat.MLcs.LGstat.ME

基于变分自编码器的空间极值过程灵活高效仿真

Flexible and efficient emulation of spatial extremes processes via variational autoencoders

University of Missouri(密苏里大学);King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST)(阿卜杜拉国王科技大学)

Likun Zhang, Xiaoyu Ma, Christopher K. Wikle, Raphaël Huser

AI总结:

针对高维空间极值过程计算与建模的挑战,提出XVAE模型,结合灵活非平稳依赖特性与变分自编码器,实现高效仿真与推断,并在红海海表温度数据上识别海洋热浪易发区域。

摘要:

许多现实世界的过程具有复杂的尾部依赖结构,无法用经典高斯过程来刻画。更灵活的空间极值模型展现出吸引人的极值依赖特性,但在高维情况下,其拟合和模拟往往极其困难。本文旨在通过将一种具有灵活且非平稳依赖特性的新空间极值模型集成到变分自编码器的编码-解码结构中(称为XVAE),推动高维空间极值计算与建模的边界。XVAE能够仿真空间观测,并生成与输入具有相同统计特性(尤其是尾部特性)的输出。我们的方法还为复杂极值过程的快速推断提供了一种新途径。通过大量模拟研究,我们表明XVAE在时间效率上显著优于传统贝叶斯推断,同时优于许多具有平稳依赖结构的空间极值模型。最后,我们分析了红海海表温度的高分辨率卫星数据集,该数据集包含16703个网格单元上30年的每日测量值。我们演示了如何使用XVAE识别气候变化下易受海洋热浪影响的区域,并检验极值依赖结构的时空变异性。

英文摘要:

Many real-world processes have complex tail dependence structures that cannot be characterized using classical Gaussian processes. More flexible spatial extremes models exhibit appealing extremal dependence properties but are often exceedingly prohibitive to fit and simulate from in high dimensions. In this paper, we aim to push the boundaries on computation and modeling of high-dimensional spatial extremes via integrating a new spatial extremes model that has flexible and non-stationary dependence properties in the encoding-decoding structure of a variational autoencoder called the XVAE. The XVAE can emulate spatial observations and produce outputs that have the same statistical properties as the inputs, especially in the tail. Our approach also provides a novel way of making fast inference with complex extreme-value processes. Through extensive simulation studies, we show that our XVAE is substantially more time-efficient than traditional Bayesian inference while outperforming many spatial extremes models with a stationary dependence structure. Lastly, we analyze a high-resolution satellite-derived dataset of sea surface temperature in the Red Sea, which includes 30 years of daily measurements at 16703 grid cells. We demonstrate how to use XVAE to identify regions susceptible to marine heatwaves under climate change and examine the spatial and temporal variability of the extremal dependence structure.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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