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arXiv 2307.00752stat.MEmath.STstat.TH
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具有延迟反馈的多臂老虎机的统计推断

Statistical Inference on Multi-armed Bandits with Delayed Feedback

Lei Shi, Jingshen Wang, Tianhao Wu

AI总结:

针对带延迟反馈的多臂老虎机策略评估,提出了允许目标策略与数据收集策略不同且适应依赖臂延迟机制的自适应加权估计量,并证明了其渐近正态性以支持大样本统计推断。

摘要:

多臂老虎机(MAB)算法越来越多地被用于补充或整合电子商务、医疗保健和政策制定中的A/B测试和随机临床试验。最新进展纳入了可能的延迟反馈。虽然现有的MAB文献通常侧重于最大化期望累积奖励结果(或等价地,最小化遗憾),但很少有研究致力于建立有效的统计推断方法来量化所学策略的不确定性。我们试图填补这一空白,为策略评估提供一个统一的统计推断框架,其中允许目标策略不同于数据收集策略,并且我们的框架允许延迟与处理臂相关。我们提出了一种自适应加权估计量,一方面结合了依赖臂的延迟机制以实现一致性,另一方面减轻了由于采样概率消失而在各阶段引起的方差膨胀。特别地,我们的估计量并不严重依赖于估计未知延迟机制的能力。在适当条件下,我们证明了随着时间点数量趋于无穷大,我们的估计量收敛于正态分布,这为大样本统计推断提供了保证。我们通过Monte Carlo实验说明了我们方法的有限样本性能。

英文摘要:

Multi armed bandit (MAB) algorithms have been increasingly used to complement or integrate with A/B tests and randomized clinical trials in e-commerce, healthcare, and policymaking. Recent developments incorporate possible delayed feedback. While existing MAB literature often focuses on maximizing the expected cumulative reward outcomes (or, equivalently, regret minimization), few efforts have been devoted to establish valid statistical inference approaches to quantify the uncertainty of learned policies. We attempt to fill this gap by providing a unified statistical inference framework for policy evaluation where a target policy is allowed to differ from the data collecting policy, and our framework allows delay to be associated with the treatment arms. We present an adaptively weighted estimator that on one hand incorporates the arm-dependent delaying mechanism to achieve consistency, and on the other hand mitigates the variance inflation across stages due to vanishing sampling probability. In particular, our estimator does not critically depend on the ability to estimate the unknown delay mechanism. Under appropriate conditions, we prove that our estimator converges to a normal distribution as the number of time points goes to infinity, which provides guarantees for large-sample statistical inference. We illustrate the finite-sample performance of our approach through Monte Carlo experiments.

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