商业周期的形态：对 Friedman 弹跳理论的跨国分析
The shape of business cycles: a cross-country analysis of Friedman s plucking theory
AI总结：
本文通过12个发达经济体1970–2021年数据检验 Friedman 弹跳理论，发现灵活劳动力市场国家失业率更符合理论，而建筑业驱动型衰退影响更持久。
摘要：
我们在1970年至2021年间对12个发达经济体检验了 Friedman 著名的商业周期弹跳理论的国际适用性。我们发现，在劳动力市场灵活的国家（澳大利亚、加拿大、英国和美国），失业率通常会回到衰退前水平，这与 Friedman 的理论一致。在其他国家，失业率的周期性较弱。产出复苏在国家间差异较小，但在不同事件间差异较大：平均而言，衰退期间GDP下降的一半会持续存在。就部门而言，制造业的下降通常会完全逆转。相比之下，往往与房地产价格泡沫破裂相关的建筑业驱动型衰退往往具有持续性。
英文摘要：
We test the international applicability of Friedman s famous plucking theory of the business cycle in 12 advanced economies between 1970 and 2021. We find that in countries where labour markets are flexible (Australia, Canada, United Kingdom and United States), unemployment rates typically return to pre-recession levels, in line with Friedman s theory. Elsewhere, unemployment rates are less cyclical. Output recoveries differ less across countries, but more across episodes: on average, half of the decline in GDP during a recession persists. In terms of sectors, declines in manufacturing are typically fully reversed. In contrast, construction-driven recessions, which are often associated with bursting property price bubbles, tend to be persistent.
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