arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv 2305.04479math.STstat.MLstat.OTstat.TH
收藏

干预概率分布的公理化

Axiomatization of Interventional Probability Distributions

Kayvan Sadeghi, Terry Soo

AI总结:

本文提出干预概率分布族的简单公理化,不依赖结构因果模型或真实因果图,仅基于单变量干预,并证明干预分布和观测分布对导出的因果图具有马尔可夫性,从而统一并扩展了现有因果推断理论。

摘要:

因果干预是因果推断中的一个基本工具。在结构因果模型的情形下,它通过do-演算的规则被公理化。我们为概率分布族提供了简单的公理化,使其成为不同类型的干预分布。我们的公理化自然地导出了一个简单而清晰的因果性理论,该理论具有若干优点:它不需要利用任何建模假设,例如结构因果模型所施加的那些假设;它仅依赖于对单个变量的干预;它涵盖了大多数包含潜变量和因果环的情况;更重要的是,它不假设存在一个潜在的真实因果图,因为我们不将其视为原始对象——事实上,因果图是作为我们理论的副产品而导出的。我们证明,在我们的公理化下,干预分布对所定义的干预因果图是马尔可夫的,并且观测到的联合概率分布对所获得的因果图是马尔可夫的;这些结果与结构因果模型的情形一致,因此,现有的因果推断理论得以适用。我们还证明了一大类自然的结构因果模型满足本文提出的理论。我们指出,本文的目标是干预族的公理化,这与“因果建模”略有不同。

英文摘要:

Causal intervention is an essential tool in causal inference. It is axiomatized under the rules of do-calculus in the case of structure causal models. We provide simple axiomatizations for families of probability distributions to be different types of interventional distributions. Our axiomatizations neatly lead to a simple and clear theory of causality that has several advantages: it does not need to make use of any modeling assumptions such as those imposed by structural causal models; it only relies on interventions on single variables; it includes most cases with latent variables and causal cycles; and more importantly, it does not assume the existence of an underlying true causal graph as we do not take it as the primitive object--in fact, a causal graph is derived as a by-product of our theory. We show that, under our axiomatizations, the intervened distributions are Markovian to the defined intervened causal graphs, and an observed joint probability distribution is Markovian to the obtained causal graph; these results are consistent with the case of structural causal models, and as a result, the existing theory of causal inference applies. We also show that a large class of natural structural causal models satisfy the theory presented here. We note that the aim of this paper is axiomatization of interventional families, which is subtly different from "causal modeling."

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

↑