近年来，公共交通在人们生活中一直不可或缺。公交客流量是影响人们是否选择乘车的一个因素。因此，从提升服务质量的角度来看，向尚未上车的乘客告知未来公交客流量非常重要。然而，存在一个担忧，即提供不准确的信息可能会导致负面体验。在这一背景下，需要为尚未上车的公交乘客提供高精度预测。许多研究者正在开展相关研究。然而，相关研究可归纳为两个问题。第一，预测时应考虑连续公交站点之间客流量的相关性。第二，尚未使用各相关研究中已被证明有用的全部特征进行预测。本研究提出了一种同时解决这两个问题的预测方法。我们通过为每个公交站点设计基于LSTM的架构，并为整个公交站点设计一个统一模型，解决了第一个问题。我们通过将过去公交客流量、星期几、时间段、天气和降水量等所有有用数据作为特征输入，解决了第二个问题。使用日本兵库县神户市Minato Kanko Bus Inc.运营的公交车在2021年10月1日至2022年9月30日期间采集的各站点客流量数据来比较精度。与现有方法相比，所提方法将RMSE平均改善了23%，最高改善27%。
英文摘要：
Public transportation has been essential in people's lives in recent years. Bus ridership is a factor in people's choice to board the bus. Therefore, from the perspective of improving service quality, it is important to inform passengers who have not boarded the bus yet about future bus ridership. However, there is a concern that providing inaccurate information may cause a negative experience. Against this backdrop, there is a need to provide bus passengers who have not boarded yet with highly accurate predictions. Many researchers are working on studies on this. However, two issues summarize related studies. The first is that the correlation of bus ridership between consecutive bus stops should be considered for the prediction. The second is that the prediction has yet to be made using all of the features shown to be useful in each related study. This study proposes a prediction method that addresses both of these issues. We solve the first issue by designing an LSTM-based architecture for each bus stop and a single model for the entire bus stop. We solve the second issue by inputting all useful data, the past bus ridership, day of the week, time section, weather, and precipitation, as features. Bus ridership at each bus stop collected from buses operated by Minato Kanko Bus Inc, in Kobe city, Hyogo, Japan, from October 1, 2021, to September 30, 2022, were used to compare accuracy. The proposed method improved RMSE by 23% on average and up to 27% compared to existing methods.
University of Liverpool（利物浦大学）；Beijing Normal University（北京师范大学）
Given an increasingly volatile climate, the relationship between weather and transit ridership has drawn increasing interest. However, challenges stemming from spatio-temporal dependency and non-stationarity have not been fully addressed in modelling and predicting transit ridership under the influence of weather conditions especially with the traditional statistical approaches. Drawing on three-month smart card data in Brisbane, Australia, this research adopts and assesses a suite of machine-learning algorithms, i.e., random forest, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Tweedie XGBoost, to …
Comparative Analysis of Polygon-Based and Global Machine Learning Models for Bus Occupancy Prediction
Faculty of Computer and Information Science, University of Ben Gurion, Be'er Sheva, Israel（本·古里安大学计算机与信息科学学院，贝尔谢巴，以色列）；Department of Geography and Environmental Development, Ben-Gurion, Israel（地理与环境发展系，本·古里安，以色列）
The ability to accurately predict public transit ridership demand benefits passengers and transit agencies. Agencies will be able to reallocate buses to handle under or over-utilized bus routes, improving resource utilization, and passengers will be able to adjust and plan their schedules to avoid overcrowded buses and maintain a certain level of comfort. However, accurately predicting occupancy is a non-trivial task. Various reasons such as heterogeneity, evolving ridership patterns, exogenous events like weather, and other stochastic variables, make the task much more challenging. With the p…
Predictive business process monitoring (PBPM) aims to predict future process behavior during ongoing process executions based on event log data. Especially, techniques for the next activity and timestamp prediction can help to improve the performance of operational business processes. Recently, many PBPM solutions based on deep learning were proposed by researchers. Due to the sequential nature of event log data, a common choice is to apply recurrent neural networks with long short-term memory (LSTM) cells. We argue, that the elapsed time between events is informative. However, current PBPM te…
Predicting the completion time of business process instances would be a very helpful aid when managing processes under service level agreement constraints. The ability to know in advance the trend of running process instances would allow business managers to react in time, in order to prevent delays or undesirable situations. However, making such accurate forecasts is not easy: many factors may influence the required time to complete a process instance. In this paper, we propose an approach based on deep Recurrent Neural Networks (specifically LSTMs) that is able to exploit arbitrary informati…
Public Transport Movia（莫维亚公共交通公司）；Technical University of Denmark（丹麦技术大学）
Accurate and reliable travel time predictions in public transport networks are essential for delivering an attractive service that is able to compete with other modes of transport in urban areas. The traditional application of this information, where arrival and departure predictions are displayed on digital boards, is highly visible in the city landscape of most modern metropolises. More recently, the same information has become critical as input for smart-phone trip planners in order to alert passengers about unreachable connections, alternative route choices and prolonged travel times. More…
The real-time prediction of business processes using historical event data is an important capability of modern business process monitoring systems. Existing process prediction methods are able to also exploit the data perspective of recorded events, in addition to the control-flow perspective. However, while well-structured numerical or categorical attributes are considered in many prediction techniques, almost no technique is able to utilize text documents written in natural language, which can hold information critical to the prediction task. In this paper, we illustrate the design, impleme…
Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology（斯科尔科沃科学技术研究院）；Grid Consulting LLC（Grid Consulting 有限责任公司）；Los Alamos National Laboratory（洛斯阿拉莫斯国家实验室）
In this work we investigate approaches to reconstruct generator models from measurements available at the generator terminal bus using machine learning (ML) techniques. The goal is to develop an emulator which is trained online and is capable of fast predictive computations. The training is illustrated on synthetic data generated based on available open-source dynamical generator model. Two ML techniques were developed and tested: (a) standard vector auto-regressive (VAR) model; and (b) novel customized long short-term memory (LSTM) deep learning model. Trade-offs in reconstruction ability bet…
Designing robust and accurate prediction models has been a viable research area since a long time. While proponents of a well-functioning market predictors believe that it is difficult to accurately predict market prices but many scholars disagree. Robust and accurate prediction systems will not only be helpful to the businesses but also to the individuals in making their financial investments. This paper presents an LSTM model with two different input approaches for predicting the short-term stock prices of two Indian companies, Reliance Industries and Infosys Ltd. Ten years of historic data …
SRM Institute of Science and Technology（SRM科学技术研究所）
Economy is severely dependent on the stock market. An uptrend usually corresponds to prosperity while a downtrend correlates to recession. Predicting the stock market has thus been a centre of research and experiment for a long time. Being able to predict short term movements in the market enables investors to reap greater returns on their investments. Stock prices are extremely volatile and sensitive to financial market. In this paper we use Deep Learning networks to predict stock prices, assimilating financial, business and technology news articles which present information about the market.…
Forecasting time series data is an important subject in economics, business, and finance. Traditionally, there are several techniques to effectively forecast the next lag of time series data such as univariate Autoregressive (AR), univariate Moving Average (MA), Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES), and more notably Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) with its many variations. In particular, ARIMA model has demonstrated its outperformance in precision and accuracy of predicting the next lags of time series. With the recent advancement in computational power of computers and more imp…
Public transportation system commuters are often interested in getting accurate travel time information to plan their daily activities. However, this information is often difficult to predict accurately due to the irregularities of road traffic, caused by factors such as weather conditions, road accidents, and traffic jams. In this study, two neural network models namely multi-layer(MLP) perceptron and long short-term model(LSTM) are developed for predicting link travel time of a busy route with input generated using Origin-Destination travel time matrix derived from a historical GPS dataset. …
Automated driving systems (ADS) have undergone a significant improvement in the last years. ADS and more precisely self-driving cars technologies will change the way we perceive and know the world of transportation systems in terms of user experience, mode choices and business models. The emerging field of Deep Learning (DL) has been successfully applied for the development of innovative ADS solutions. However, the attempt to single out the best deep neural network architecture and tuning its hyperparameters are all expensive processes, both in terms of time and computational resources. In thi…
Aalto University（阿尔托大学）；QPR Software Plc（QPR软件公司）；HIIT Helsinki Institute for Information Technology（赫尔辛基信息技术研究所）
Process Mining consists of techniques where logs created by operative systems are transformed into process models. In process mining tools it is often desired to be able to classify ongoing process instances, e.g., to predict how long the process will still require to complete, or to classify process instances to different classes based only on the activities that have occurred in the process instance thus far. Recurrent neural networks and its subclasses, such as Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), have been demonstrated to be able to learn relevant temporal features…
A deep learning model is applied for predicting block-level parking occupancy in real time. The model leverages Graph-Convolutional Neural Networks (GCNN) to extract the spatial relations of traffic flow in large-scale networks, and utilizes Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) with Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) to capture the temporal features. In addition, the model is capable of taking multiple heterogeneously structured traffic data sources as input, such as parking meter transactions, traffic speed, and weather conditions. The model performance is evaluated through a case study in Pittsburgh d…
Scalable Transit Delay Prediction at City Scale: A Systematic Approach with Multi-Resolution Feature Engineering and Deep Learning
Systems Engineering Department, École de technologie supérieure (ÉTS)（系统工程系，École de technologie supérieure（ÉTS））；Department of Computing and Information Systems, Trent University（计算与信息系统系，特伦特大学）
Reliable and accurate wind speed prediction has significant impact in many industrial sectors such as economic, business and management among others. This paper presents a new model for wind speed prediction based on Graph Attention Networks (GAT). In particular, the proposed model extends GAT architecture by equipping it with a learnable adjacency matrix as well as incorporating a new attention mechanism with the aim of obtaining attention scores per weather variable. The output of the GAT based model is combined with the LSTM layer in order to exploit both the spatial and temporal characteri…
Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg（埃尔朗根-纽伦堡弗里德里希-亚历山大大学）
Already before systems malfunction one has to know if hardware components will fail in near future in order to counteract in time. Thus, unplanned downtime is ought to be avoided. In medical imaging, maximizing the system's uptime is crucial for patients' health and healthcare provider's daily business. We aim to predict failures of Head/Neck coils used in Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) by training a statistical model on sequential data collected over time. As image features depend on the coil's condition, their deviations from the normal range already hint to future failure. Thus, we used i…
ULiège（列日大学）；LTCI, Telecom Paris, Institut Polytechnique de Paris（巴黎综合理工学院电信学院LTCI实验室）
In business retention, churn prevention has always been a major concern. This work contributes to this domain by formalizing the problem of churn prediction in the context of online gambling as a binary classification task. We also propose an algorithmic answer to this problem based on recurrent neural network. This algorithm is tested with online gambling data that have the form of time series, which can be efficiently processed by recurrent neural networks. To evaluate the performances of the trained models, standard machine learning metrics were used, such as accuracy, precision and recall.…
In this paper, we present a novel approach to identify the Spatio-temporal and environmental features that influence the safety of a road and predict its accident proneness based on these features. A total of 14 features were compiled based on Time, Weather, and Location (TWL) specificity along a road. To determine the influence each of the 14 features carries, a sensitivity study was performed using Principal Component Analysis. Using the locations of accident warnings, a Safety Index was developed to quantify how accident-prone a particular road is. We implement a novel approach to predict t…
