arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv 2304.04644stat.ME
收藏

多元变点检测的非渐近推断

Non-asymptotic inference for multivariate change point detection

Ian Barnett

AI总结:

针对数字表型中非渐近变点检测问题,提出似然比检验的非渐近推断方法,在数据量不大时提供准确且高效的p值估计,并在模拟和真实精神分裂症患者复发前行为变点检测中验证了其优越性。

摘要:

变点检测中的传统推断方法通常依赖大量观测数据点,在非渐近设定下可能不准确。随着移动健康和数字表型研究的兴起,患者通过智能手机或其他数字设备进行监测,在非渐近设定下需要进行变点检测,此时识别在复发或自杀等不良事件发生前几天出现的行为变化可能很重要。此外,对于大规模数字表型队列的监测和在线分析,需要分析上和计算上高效的推断手段。我们将似然比检验的渐近尾部概率结果扩展到多元变点检测设定,并通过模拟证明了当观测数据点数量不大时该方法的不准确性。我们提出了一种用于似然比检验推断的非渐近方法,并将该估计p值的效率与通过模拟零分布获得的流行经验p值进行了比较。通过模拟,以及在复发前一周精神分裂症患者行为变点检测中的应用,证明了该方法相对于竞争方法的准确性和功效。

英文摘要:

Traditional methods for inference in change point detection often rely on a large number of observed data points and can be inaccurate in non-asymptotic settings. With the rise of mobile health and digital phenotyping studies, where patients are monitored through the use of smartphones or other digital devices, change point detection is needed in non-asymptotic settings where it may be important to identify behavioral changes that occur just days before an adverse event such as relapse or suicide. Furthermore, analytical and computationally efficient means of inference are necessary for the monitoring and online analysis of large-scale digital phenotyping cohorts. We extend the result for asymptotic tail probabilities of the likelihood ratio test to the multivariate change point detection setting, and demonstrate through simulation its inaccuracy when the number of observed data points is not large. We propose a non-asymptotic approach for inference on the likelihood ratio test, and compare the efficiency of this estimated p-value to the popular empirical p-value obtained through simulation of the null distribution. The accuracy and power of this approach relative to competing methods is demonstrated through simulation and through the detection of a change point in the behavior of a patient with schizophrenia in the week prior to relapse.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

↑