乌拉圭生育率的短期与长期决定因素
The short- and long-term determinants of fertility in Uruguay
AI总结：
本文利用1968-2021年时间序列和1984-2019年省级面板数据，研究乌拉圭女性生育率的决定因素，发现收入、教育、婴儿死亡率和就业率对不同生育阶段女性有显著影响，并强调教育对降低青少年生育率的关键作用及社会政策的重要性。
摘要：
本文考察了乌拉圭处于不同生育阶段女性的生育率决定因素。为此，我们采用基于1968年至2021年数据的时间序列分析方法，以及基于1984年至2019年省级统计信息的面板数据技术。第一项计量经济学分析的结果表明，生育率与经济表现、教育和婴儿死亡率之间存在协整关系，且在不同生育阶段观察到差异。我们发现，20至29岁女性的收入与生育率之间存在负相关关系，并且这种关系在30岁及以上女性中持续存在。这一结果表明，对于该年龄段的女性而言，生育子女被视为一种机会成本。我们还观察到教育与青少年生育率之间存在负相关关系，这对公共政策的设计具有启示意义。采用能够控制未观测异质性的计量经济学技术进行的面板数据分析证实，收入对所有女性群体都是一个相关因素，并强化了教育在降低青少年生育率方面的关键作用。我们还识别出30岁及以上女性生育率与就业率之间的负相关关系。我们在工作与生活平衡问题的背景下概述了对这些发现的一些可能解释，并论证了实施社会政策以解决这些问题的重要性。
英文摘要：
This paper examines the determinants of fertility among women at different stages of their reproductive lives in Uruguay. To this end, we employ time series analysis methods based on data from 1968 to 2021 and panel data techniques based on department-level statistical information from 1984 to 2019. The results of our first econometric exercise indicate a cointegration relationship between fertility and economic performance, education and infant mortality, with differences observed by reproductive stage. We find a negative relationship between income and fertility for women aged 20-29 that persists for women aged 30 and over. This result suggests that having children is perceived as an opportunity cost for women in this age group. We also observe a negative relationship between education and adolescent fertility, which has implications for the design of public policies. A panel data analysis with econometric techniques allowing us to control for unobserved heterogeneity confirms that income is a relevant factor for all groups of women and reinforces the crucial role of education in reducing teenage fertility. We also identify a negative correlation between fertility and employment rates for women aged 30 and above. We outline some possible explanations for these findings in the context of work-life balance issues and argue for the importance of implementing social policies to address them.
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