简化和改进：重温保加利亚的收入预测模型
Simplifying and Improving: Revisiting Bulgaria's Revenue Forecasting Models
摘要：
在真正的社会主义结束后的30年里，保加利亚从一个完全“不同”的税收制度转变为采用边际税率的统一税率，企业所得税和个人所得税的边际税率从高达40%下降到10%。至关重要的是，保加利亚财政部使用的计量经济学预测模型暗示，税收收入的增加符合所谓的“拉弗曲线”。同样，许多经济学家认为收入会增加。然而，现实并没有达到这些基于预测模型和主流经济理论的预期。因此，本文问是否有更好的预测模型，个人和企业所得税收入在保加利亚，易于实施，并优于目前使用的。在对当前的预测模型进行了建设性的批评之后，本文提供了易于实施的透明替代方案，并证明了它们的优越性。
英文摘要：
In the thirty years since the end of real socialism, Bulgaria's went from having a rather radically 'different' tax system to adopting flat-rate taxation with marginal tax rates that fell from figures as high as 40% to 10% for both the corporate-income tax and the personal-income tax. Crucially, the econometric forecasting models in use at the Bulgarian Ministry of Finance hinted at an increase in tax revenue compatible with the so-called 'Laffer curve'. Similarly, many economists held the view that revenues would have increased. However, reality fell short of those expectations based on forecasting models and rooted in mainstream economic theory. Thus, this paper asks whether there are betterperforming forecasting models for personal-and corporate-income tax-revenues in Bulgaria that are readily implementable and overperform the ones currently in use. After articulating a constructive critique of the current forecasting models, the paper offers readily implementable, transparent alternatives and proves their superiority.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
