基于实验室实验的日常路线选择调查和建模。第II部分：基于路径依赖吸引的随机过程模型
Investigating and modeling day-to-day route choices based on laboratory experiments. Part II: A route-dependent attraction-based stochastic process model
摘要：
为了解释在一系列实验室实验中观察到的日常（DTD）路线选择行为和交通动态，本研究的第一部分提出了一个基于离散选择的分析动态模型（Qi等人，2023年）。虽然确定性模型可以很好地再现实验观测，它收敛到一个稳定的平衡路线流量，而观察到的DTD的演变是明显的随机振荡。为了克服这一局限性，本文提出了一个基于路径依赖吸引的随机过程（RDAB-SP）模型的基础上相同的行为假设在本研究的第一部分。通过比较基于模型的估计和实验观测结果，证明了RDAB-SP模型能够准确地再现流量切换和路径流量演化的随机振荡。据我们所知，这是第一次尝试通过使用随机过程DTD模型来解释和模拟实验观测，有趣的是发现，看似意料之外的现象（即，随机路由切换行为）实际上由简单规则支配，即，独立和基于概率的路径选择行为。最后，一个近似模型的开发，以帮助模拟的随机过程，并在一个简单而有效的方式评估的均衡分布，使该模型在交通政策设计的有用和实用的工具。
英文摘要：
To explain day-to-day (DTD) route-choice behaviors and traffic dynamics observed in a series of lab experiments, Part I of this research proposed a discrete choice-based analytical dynamic model (Qi et al., 2023). Although the deterministic model could well reproduce the experimental observations, it converges to a stable equilibrium of route flow while the observed DTD evolution is apparently with random oscillations. To overcome the limitation, the paper proposes a route-dependent attraction-based stochastic process (RDAB-SP) model based on the same behavioral assumptions in Part I of this research. Through careful comparison between the model-based estimation and experimental observations, it is demonstrated that the proposed RDAB-SP model can accurately reproduce the random oscillations both in terms of flow switching and route flow evolution. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to explain and model experimental observations by using stochastic process DTD models, and it is interesting to find that the seemingly unanticipated phenomena (i.e., random route switching behavior) is actually dominated by simple rules, i.e., independent and probability-based route-choice behavior. Finally, an approximated model is developed to help simulate the stochastic process and evaluate the equilibrium distribution in a simple and efficient manner, making the proposed model a useful and practical tool in transportation policy design.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
