基于口头尸检的死因判定贝叶斯主动问卷设计
Bayesian Active Questionnaire Design for Cause-of-Death Assignment Using Verbal Autopsies
AI总结：
针对口头尸检问卷冗长阻碍推广的问题，提出兼容现有概率死因判定方法的贝叶斯主动问卷设计策略，含自适应选问题、提前停止准则与惩罚得分，用更少问题实现准确死因判定。
摘要：
全球仅约三分之一的死亡病例拥有医学认证的死因，而了解医疗机构外发生的死亡的死因在后勤和经济上都颇具挑战。口头尸检（Verbal Autopsy，VA）是这类场景下用于收集死因信息的常规工具。VA是一种基于调查的方法：通过对新近逝者的家属或照护者开展结构化问卷调查，再利用收集到的信息推断死因。随着VA日益成为死因数据收集的常规工具，冗长的问卷已成为VA实施与推广的主要障碍。\n本文提出了一种新颖的主动问卷设计方法，可动态优化问题顺序，以最少的问题数量实现准确的死因判定。我们提出了一种完全贝叶斯自适应问题选择策略，该策略可兼容任何现有的概率死因判定方法。我们还制定了充分考虑模型参数不确定性的提前停止准则，并提出了一种惩罚得分，以兼顾现有问题结构的约束与偏好。\n我们利用合成数据与真实数据评估了所提主动设计的性能，结果表明，与传统的静态VA调查工具相比，所提策略使用的问题数量显著减少，同时仍能实现准确的死因判定。
英文摘要：
Only about one-third of the deaths worldwide are assigned a medically-certified cause, and understanding the causes of deaths occurring outside of medical facilities is logistically and financially challenging. Verbal autopsy (VA) is a routinely used tool to collect information on cause of death in such settings. VA is a survey-based method where a structured questionnaire is conducted to family members or caregivers of a recently deceased person, and the collected information is used to infer the cause of death. As VA becomes an increasingly routine tool for cause-of-death data collection, the lengthy questionnaire has become a major challenge to the implementation and scale-up of VAs. In this paper, we propose a novel active questionnaire design approach that optimizes the order of the questions dynamically to achieve accurate cause-of-death assignment with the smallest number of questions. We propose a fully Bayesian strategy for adaptive question selection that is compatible with any existing probabilistic cause-of-death assignment methods. We also develop an early stopping criterion that fully accounts for the uncertainty in the model parameters. We also propose a penalized score to account for constraints and preferences of existing question structures. We evaluate the performance of our active designs using both synthetic and real data, demonstrating that the proposed strategy achieves accurate cause-of-death assignment using considerably fewer questions than the traditional static VA survey instruments.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
