事件预测方法系统视角综述：整合不同研究领域
A Survey on Event Prediction Methods from a Systems Perspective: Bringing Together Disparate Research Areas
AI总结：
本文从系统视角综述事件预测方法，整合不同研究领域的方法，明确需求并评估现有工作，识别开放挑战与未来方向。
摘要：
事件预测是指预见未来事件（即未来真实世界发生的事件）的能力，旨在支持用户决定采取行动，以将未来事件导向期望的状态。事件预测方法学习过去事件特征与未来事件之间的关系，并将其应用于新观察到的事件，以预测相应的未来事件，再根据用户期望的未来状态对这些预测进行评估。若预测的未来事件不符合该状态，则采取行动以达成理想的未来状态。显然，事件预测在商业和自然灾害等众多应用领域中具有重要价值。应用领域的多样性导致了方法的多样化，这些方法分散于各个研究领域，而各领域对事件预测方法使用了不同的术语。因此，共享开发未来事件预测方法的知识和手段受到限制。为了通过全面整合和评估事件预测方法来促进知识共享，我们采用系统视角，将事件预测方法整合到一个统一系统中，明确需求，并依据需求评估现有工作。基于评估结果，我们识别出开放性挑战并讨论了未来研究方向。
英文摘要：
Event prediction is the ability of anticipating future events, i.e., future real-world occurrences, and aims to support the user in deciding on actions that change future events towards a desired state. An event prediction method learns the relation between features of past events and future events. It is applied to newly observed events to predict corresponding future events that are evaluated with respect to the user's desired future state. If the predicted future events do not comply with this state, actions are taken towards achieving desirable future states. Evidently, event prediction is valuable in many application domains such as business and natural disasters. The diversity of application domains results in a diverse range of methods that are scattered across various research areas which, in turn, use different terminology for event prediction methods. Consequently, sharing methods and knowledge for developing future event prediction methods is restricted. To facilitate knowledge sharing on account of a comprehensive integration and assessment of event prediction methods, we take a systems perspective to integrate event prediction methods into a single system, elicit requirements, and assess existing work with respect to the requirements. Based on the assessment, we identify open challenges and discuss future research directions.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
