政治学中的量化理论：结构方法的识别、解释和作用
Quantifying Theory in Politics: Identification, Interpretation and the Role of Structural Methods
摘要：
政治学中最好的实证研究清楚地定义了利益的实质性参数，提出了一套保证其识别的假设，并使用了适当的估计。我们认为，明确整合严格的理论到这个过程中的重要性，并专注于这样做的优势。通过将理论结构整合到一个人的经验策略中，研究人员可以量化竞争机制的影响，考虑新政策的事前影响，将发现外推到新的环境中，估计模型特定的理论参数，评估理论模型的拟合度，并测试旨在解释相同现象的竞争模型。作为这样一种方法的指南，我们提供了一个结构估计的概述，包括正式的定义，实施建议，例子，并与其他方法的比较。
英文摘要：
The best empirical research in political science clearly defines substantive parameters of interest, presents a set of assumptions that guarantee its identification, and uses an appropriate estimator. We argue for the importance of explicitly integrating rigorous theory into this process and focus on the advantages of doing so. By integrating theoretical structure into one's empirical strategy, researchers can quantify the effects of competing mechanisms, consider the ex-ante effects of new policies, extrapolate findings to new environments, estimate model-specific theoretical parameters, evaluate the fit of a theoretical model, and test competing models that aim to explain the same phenomena. As a guide to such a methodology, we provide an overview of structural estimation, including formal definitions, implementation suggestions, examples, and comparisons to other methods.
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