随着电气化加热的增加，对ERCOT的峰值电力负荷增长的观测及其对未来资源规划的影响
Observations of peak electric load growth in ERCOT with the rise of electrified heating and its implications for future resource planning
摘要：
该分析定量地比较了德克萨斯州电力可靠性委员会（ERCOT）服务区从1997年到2021年夏季和冬季高峰需求的演变。此外，亦收集了需求高峰日的天气数据，以研究热负荷及冷负荷高峰与环境温度之间的关系。然后，将这种关系与人口预测和具有中到高辐射强迫的气候情景一起应用，以创建2025年至2050年的冬季和夏季峰值需求增长情景。该分析为资源规划者提供了有关ERCOT峰值需求未来可能如何变化的信息，并为电力负荷增长和非灵活的电气化供暖需求如何导致2021年2月ERCOT停电提供了新的见解。我们发现，从历史上看，夏季高峰需求增长通常是稳定的，并且与时间近似呈线性关系。稳定的夏季高峰负荷可能是夏季高峰需求日观察到的相当恒定的温度的结果。相反，冬季高峰需求增长的一致性较低，围绕更广泛的趋势变化更大。这种现象可能是冬季需求高峰日住宅电加热负荷高的结果，温度与平均值相差很大。未来的冬季和夏季电力需求高峰情景表明，虽然冬季需求高峰日的平均温度将保持相当稳定，但它们将比夏季需求高峰日的温度更不稳定。因此，冬季高峰需求将更加不稳定，并将在2025年至2050年期间偶尔超过夏季高峰需求。因此，ERCOT的资源规划人员应减少对冬季高峰需求预测的确定性，似乎有必要提高供应和需求部门的冬季准备水平。
英文摘要：
This analysis quantitatively compares the evolution in summer and winter peak demands in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) service area from 1997 through 2021. Weather data for the days in which peak demand occurred were also compiled to investigate the relationship between peak heating and cooling loads and ambient temperature. This relationship was then applied along with population projections and a climate scenario with medium to high radiative forcing to create winter and summer peak demand growth scenarios for 2025 through 2050. This analysis informs resource planners about how ERCOT peak demand might change in the future and provides new insight into how electric load growth and non-flexible electrified heating demand could have contributed to the February 2021 ERCOT blackouts. We found that historically, summer peak demand growth has been generally stable and approximately linear with time. The stable summer peak load is likely a consequence of fairly constant temperatures observed on summer peak demand days. Conversely, the winter peak demand growth has been less consistent, varying much more around the broader trend. This phenomenon is likely a consequence of high residential electrical heating load on winter peak demand days, which saw temperatures that varied widely from the mean value. Future peak winter and summer electricity demand scenarios indicated that while average temperatures on winter peak demand days will remain fairly constant, they will be more erratic than temperatures on summer peak demand days. As a result, winter peak demand will remain more erratic and will sporadically surpass summer peak demand between 2025 and 2050. Thus, resource planners in ERCOT should place less certainty on winter peak demand projections and an increased level of winter preparedness on both the supply and demand sectors appears warranted.
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