在预测水果农场的财务状况方面，气候变化以外的因素目前更为重要
Factors other than climate change are currently more important in predicting how well fruit farms are doing financially
摘要：
机器学习和统计建模方法被用来分析气候变化对突尼斯和智利果农财务状况的影响。该分析基于对801名农民的面对面访谈。三个研究问题进行了调查。首先，气候变化的影响是否会影响农场的财务状况。第二，如果气候变化没有影响力，那么哪些因素对预测农场的财务状况很重要。第三，确定观察到的对农场财务状况的影响是否是预测变量之间相互作用的结果。这是第一份直接将气候变化与其他可能影响农场财务状况的因素进行比较的报告。某些气候变化因素，即气温升高和降水减少，可能会在区域范围内影响果农自我感知的财务状况。具体而言，气温上升和降水减少可能对智利农场的财务状况产生可衡量的负面影响。这种影响在突尼斯不太明显。在智利观察到气候影响差异，但在突尼斯没有。然而，气候变化对于预测农场财务状况的重要性并不大，特别是对于那些财务状况已经很好的农场。更重要的因素，主要是在突尼斯，包括对信息源的信任和先前的农场所有权。其他重要因素包括农场规模、使用的水管理系统和种植的水果作物的多样性。此外，一些重要的因素确定不同的农场做和不做好财政。因素之间的相互作用可能会改善或恶化农场的财务状况。
英文摘要：
Machine learning and statistical modeling methods were used to analyze the impact of climate change on financial wellbeing of fruit farmers in Tunisia and Chile. The analysis was based on face to face interviews with 801 farmers. Three research questions were investigated. First, whether climate change impacts had an effect on how well the farm was doing financially. Second, if climate change was not influential, what factors were important for predicting financial wellbeing of the farm. And third, ascertain whether observed effects on the financial wellbeing of the farm were a result of interactions between predictor variables. This is the first report directly comparing climate change with other factors potentially impacting financial wellbeing of farms. Certain climate change factors, namely increases in temperature and reductions in precipitation, can regionally impact self-perceived financial wellbeing of fruit farmers. Specifically, increases in temperature and reduction in precipitation can have a measurable negative impact on the financial wellbeing of farms in Chile. This effect is less pronounced in Tunisia. Climate impact differences were observed within Chile but not in Tunisia. However, climate change is only of minor importance for predicting farm financial wellbeing, especially for farms already doing financially well. Factors that are more important, mainly in Tunisia, included trust in information sources and prior farm ownership. Other important factors include farm size, water management systems used and diversity of fruit crops grown. Moreover, some of the important factors identified differed between farms doing and not doing well financially. Interactions between factors may improve or worsen farm financial wellbeing.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
