地中海地区冰川均衡调整引起的持续海平面变化和陆地运动的新估计
New estimates of ongoing sea level change and land movements caused by Glacial Isostatic Adjustment in the Mediterranean region
摘要：
冰川均衡调整（GIA）是由过去的冰盖融化引起的，它仍然是地中海地区海平面变化和三维地壳形变的主要原因。然而，由于GIA的贡献不能从海洋或构造起源中分离出来，它的作用只能通过数值模拟来评估，解决重力自洽海平面方程。尽管如此，关于晚更新世冰盖融化历史和地幔流变学特征的不确定性对GIA预测的影响是未知的。估计全球影响评估模型的不确定性在地中海区域尤为重要，因为目前从空间和地面观测中获得了大量高质量的大地测量数据，这些数据的解释需要适当的均衡校正。在这里，我们首先回顾以前的结果GIA在地中海的影响，启发的变化，所有领域的持续条件下的均衡不平衡的影响。然后，第一次在这一地区，我们采用了合奏建模的方法，以更好地约束现今的GIA贡献海平面上升和大地测量的变化，以及它们的不确定性。
英文摘要：
Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) caused by the melting of past ice sheets is still a major cause of sea-level variations and 3-D crustal deformation in the Mediterranean region. However, since the contribution of GIA cannot be separated from those of oceanic or tectonic origin, its role can be only assessed by numerical modelling, solving the gravitationally self-consistent Sea Level Equation. Nonetheless, uncertainties about the melting history of the late-Pleistocene ice sheets and the rheological profile of the Earth's mantle affect the GIA predictions by an unknown amount. Estimating the GIA modelling uncertainties would be particularly important in the Mediterranean region, due to the amount of high quality geodetic data from space-borne and ground-based observations currently available, whose interpretation demands a suitable isostatic correction. Here we first review previous results about the effects of GIA in the Mediterranean Sea, enlightening the variability of all the fields affected by the persistent condition of isostatic disequilibrium. Then, for the first time in this region, we adopt an ensemble modelling approach to better constrain the present-day GIA contributions to sea-level rise and geodetic variations, and their uncertainty.
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